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Austin market update September 07

By Mike Elliott

Real Estate Agent

September 19, 2007 09:55 AM

Take a close look at the numbers for the Austin market now. When I say close, I mean CLOSE! What's happening? Well, that depends.

Remember that any and all markets are made up of many sub-markets or even micro markets. Real estate is INTENSELY local. Also remember the old adage, there are three kinds of lies, 1. Lies, 2. Damn Lies, 3. Statistics. The last thing I'll ask you to remember is the purpose of the media and in particular the big national media outlets. If you think they're in the news business, you're wrong. They are in the business of selling advertising, period, end of story. The more sensational and headline grabbing they can make their news, the more we Americans with our insatiable appetite for headlines pay attention. Therefore the more they can charge for commercials or ad space.

That said, does the US have a real estate crisis? Nope. Despite what you read, the entire country is NOT undergoing a real estate crisis right now. Are some markets down? Of course they are. I feel bad for my colleagues in Florida, California and a few other places.

Back to the Austin market, the local media is begging for a big story. They want to write that the Austin market is in trouble. It's not. There are certainly neighborhoods where inventory is increasing. Marketing times are getting a little longer. Other neighborhoods are doing great! Here is a tip for you. The closer you are to downtown, the less volatile your price swings are going to be. If you're in Round Rock, Pflugerville or Cedar Park, things might be a little bit bumpy for you for a while. But if you're inside "the loop" as I define it, there is nothing at all to worry about. Austin has had strong growth, but not boom growth for the last 3 years. Our economy is fundamentally strong. We'll be just fine...

Don't believe the hype.

Maxwell McDaniel

Austin A Plus Homes

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Steve Crossland

Crossland Real Estate - Austin, TX

Austin TX Real Estate

Hi Maxwell,

Don't believe the hype is right, but Austin is indeed undergoing a shift in the market. This is odd because we've had two strong years after 4 flat years (not the normal cycle intervals), but all indications are that a pullback is in fact starting. Central areas are better off, but not exempt from a shift. The stats for Austin look fantastic, but the rising invesntory and dropping number of sales can't be ignored either.

Agents who don't properly orient their sellers may end up with a listing that sits, and wonder why. Buyer agents should be able to be a bit more agressive at least through this fall and into next Spring.

I loved your first paragraph. Very good writing.

Steve Crossland, MPM
www.CrosslandTeam.com
Austin TX

Sep 19, 2007 10:42 AM

Chuck Willman

Chuck Willman - Alpine, UT

NewHouseUtah.com

Thanks for the information- I've been looking at Austin from Phoenix. The "statistics" are indeed hard to read- especially in traditional print media... because this current business climate seems to shift almost like the weather.

Sep 19, 2007 10:53 AM

Mike Elliott

Austin, TX

Hi Steve,

Thanks for the comments and the compliment! There is no question that inventory is up when taken as a whole. There is also the fact that pendings and solds are down. We've had a weird summer here.

Candidly July and August were a little lighter than usual. But Sept has seen a strong turnaround in my individual office. Anecdotal evidence is that business is picking up. We're experiencing it in our office and other agents around the market center are experiencing the same thing.

I believe these trends have been caused by a couple of things 1. Cautious reaction to the national "crisis" headlines. Despite the overall high educational level in Austin, people still love to watch CNN and the doom and gloom that they they spew forth. 2. The weird weather that Austin experienced over the summer. For those who don't know, we've had so much rain that if it didn't rain another drop until the end of the year, we'll be WAY ahead of average. A bonus factor has been the difficulties in the subprime market.

Finally.. you're right, no segment of the market is immune, even the inner city neighborhoods like Tarrytown, Pemberton Heights, Travis Heights could be and have been affected by market dips. That said, I think it would be hard to deny that they are dramatically more "safe" than buying a home in say, Pflugerville.

Sep 19, 2007 11:06 AM

Austin market update September 07

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