These three charts show the number of closed units in Collier County, Florida. A previous post is quite similar but shows the available "For Sale" inventory instead. Here we have single family homes in chart one, condominiums in chart two and the past three years of the bulk residential combined sold activity appearing in the bottom chart. The shaded lower portion of each column is representative of the Bank owned product. We hear a lot about the "Shadow" inventory affecting the markets everywhere and it is sometimes hard to grasp. Although the view depicted here is not as distinct as in the available home charting it does show a somewhat controlled flow in each of the following month's ratio of Bank owned to the total sales. Maybe I am just seeing things? Maybe it's something I want to believe exists and reporting this is only to convince myself it's there? Either train of thought at this point may be only thought of as conjecture. Time will tell!
When viewed in combination with the "For Sale" chart the reality of this Shadow Inventory begins to set in. Whereas availability remained virtually flat the activity shown above visibly fluctuates to widely varying degrees each month. In keeping to the theory that this is an orchestrated process observe how each following month here appears to correct the previous one's positioning relative to the full sold market. The picture remains somewhat obscured but there's a certain degree of clarity which is coming into focus.
Above is the Condominium display, which, being a much harder hit target cannot absorb the potential losses of the 45% to 55% share that single family homes can. Their popularity exists because we mainly entertain a second home market and our seasonality reaches population extremes of under 300,000 permanent residents to estimates of over 1,000,000 on a temporary basis. Maintenance becomes the priority of the property manager up to 9 months of the year while units are left unoccupied.
According to the chart above, foreclosures may have begun but the result of that did not begin to become identifiable until the second quarter of 2008. Exclusive of the First Time Home Buyer Credit the relative equilibrium is seen once again from the middle of '09 onward. Manufactured or not this depiction does not look or feel right to me. Let me know your thoughts and confirm mine if you agree with what you've found here?
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