Monday, Jan. 31, 2011 -- RECAP: Just as we were all set to celebrate an eight-week winning streak for the stock market, Friday treated us to the biggest one-day drop in months, with the Dow falling 166 points on fears over Egyptian unrest. As oil prices rose, investors seeking safety sold off their equity positions, but losses were modest in the end. All three major indexes were down for the week by half a percent or less.
The economic data keeps offering encouragement, but Wall Street always first looks to corporate earnings to gauge how we're doing. Last week saw 14 Dow components reporting Q4 numbers and 11 of them did better than expected. Some missed their revenue targets and issued lukewarm guidance going forward. But overall, the corporate earnings picture continues to show a preponderance of strong performances in spite of the slow rate of economic recovery.
Durable Goods Orders were down in December but this was almost all due to a drop in volatile civilian aircraft. Orders for "core" capital goods are actually UP two months in a row. Weekly initial jobless claims were up, but they included the prior week's claims that were delayed by snowstorms in the South. Housing showed the upbeat signs mentioned above. Best of all, the first estimate for Q4 GDP came in at a 3.2% annual growth rate. This was a little lower than expected, but exports were super strong and consumer spending was UP a very healthy 4.4% annually, its fastest rate in almost five years.
[Editor's note and personal opinion: All eyes are on Egypt, where the lack of middle class and massive poverty coupled with the world-wide skyrocketing of food prices have fueled civil unrest, the experts say, and this could spread to other countries and have a negative impact on stock prices but could help bond and even mortgage rates improve.]
From my "Inside Lending Newsletter"
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