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Will Real Estate Prices Fall in 2011?

By
Real Estate Agent with RE/MAX Properties Nashua

Just read this Inman News article by Steve Bergsman http://www.inman.com/buyers-sellers/columnists/stevebergsman/real-estate-prices-fall-least-5-in-2011. It had a great analysis of the housing market. We all want a recovery of the housing market, it is a key indicator to a healthy economy. But are we being too optimistic?

House with calculatorReliable trend analysis can only be established with a large data set over a longer period of time: 1-3 years. I leave the “forecasting” to the economic experts…it is basically an educated guess. I am in the trenches and can come up with my own hypothesis on continued trends, but it is more specific to my areas of expertise…southern NH. Things have been fairly stable, entry level properties in good condition sell quick, investors are busy buying and flipping, the mortgage market is loosening up, and consumer optimism is increasing.

There are so many excellent points in this article, but every area is different. We are in the slowest time of year for southern New Hampshire real estate: winter. In areas with severe winter conditions the fluctuations between seasons can be large. Therefore short trend analysis is unreliable and possibly misleading and may or may not reliably indicate the future market trends. The coming spring market is just around the corner and without the artificial boost from last years tax credit we will get a more accurate picture of the real estate health.

So I am waiting until spring to give-up on my real estate recovery. Call me an educated optimist…

-Just my thoughts.

www.TopNHhomes.com
www.JACoteAppraisals.com

 

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Comments (2)

Brin Realty Associates Team At Bean Group
Bean Group | Brin Realty Associates - Amherst, NH
Amherst NH homes and Southern NH real estate

Hi Jenn, I agree with being careful how we interpret national information, every market is different..and in the smaller markets for sure, the data from a shorter period is not reliable...You can see one or two homes skewing the numbers in these markets...I, too, am waiting for Spring in Southern NH to see what we have for activity before we make a call.

Feb 15, 2011 09:56 PM
Orlando Masis
Appraisal IQ (Real Estate Appraisal) in Austin Texas - Austin, TX
Austin Appraiser, for Real Estate

I agree completely that short trend analysis is misleading - only a lot of data over a lot of time can really indicate a trend, vs. a blip, a fluke, an brief uptick, downturn or what ever it ends up being as viewed through the lens of time.

Mar 14, 2011 08:28 PM