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Why Sellers Should Understand Months of Inventory

By
Real Estate Agent with Berkshire Hathaway Home Services Florida Network Realty BK 3030920

 

We have all come across sellers who have, in their opinion, the best house on the block, more improvements than the neighbors, the unique floorplan that will help sell their house.

Some of these may be true, and some may have an impact on the listing price of the their home, but the truth is, part of it really comes down to supply and demand; the number of homes available and the buyers who want them.

There are many variables to supply and demand, but we'll look at Neptune Beach, a small oceanside community in Northeastern Florida as an example for today.

 

Month/                    Months                                       Listings  

Year                       Inventory                Active                 New                 Sold                                                        

Feb-09

25

75

14

3

Mar-09

11.43

80

19

7

Apr-09

41

82

8

2

May-09

18.25

73

11

4

Jun-09

8

80

20

10

Jul-09

6.9

69

11

10

Aug-09

9.57

67

5

7

Sep-09

23

69

25

3

Oct-09

10

70

7

7

Nov-09

18.5

74

11

4

Dec-09

17

68

8

4

Jan-10

11.67

70

13

6

Feb-10

14.6

73

11

5

Mar-10

36.5

73

18

2

Apr-10

9.63

77

14

8

May-10

19

76

13

4

Jun-10

8.1

81

15

10

Jul-10

20.75

83

16

4

Aug-10

21.25

85

11

4

Sep-10

21

84

8

4

Oct-10

27

81

12

3

Nov-10

11.14

78

13

7

Dec-10

10.29

72

3

7

Jan-11

16

64

13

4

 

 I've bolded the months that have the lowest inventory of homes available, so you can see these are June 2009, July 2009, and June 2010.

What's really surprising to me is the months of July 2010-October 2010, where it jumps up to the highest levels in this example with over 20 months (that's 1.6 years by the way).

This table clearly shows that as new listings come on the market, if the buyers do not absorb at least that number of homes in sales, the total inventory level increases, which ultimately will exert downward price pressure on ALL homes on the market.

Anyone looking to sell their home, whether in Neptune Beach, Florida, or elsewhere, need to consider the months of inventory as part of their strategy when determining their pricing range, and how long they want to take the sale to occur.

Posted by

Carol Zingone is a full service Broker Associate proudly affiliated with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Network Realty in Atlantic Beach, FL.  I help buyers and sellers locally, regionally, and internationally.  With hundreds of happy buyers and sellers over the course of my career, I'm thrilled to help first time buyers, military buyers, seniors, investors, 1031 exchange properties, short sales and REO's.  I have spent hours honing my expertise, including the designations of: Graduate Realtor Institute (GRI), Loss Mitigation Certification (LMC) , Short Sales, Foreclosures, REO's, (SFR), and Senior Real Estate Specialist (SRES).  I pride myself on providing excellent expertise to all buyers and sellers. Search the MLS via www.carolzingone.com  for Jacksonville and area listings!

 

Cory Barbee
San Diego, CA
Broker (760) 563-4022

These are great facts and I think data excluded many time in a listing presentation..nice job

Feb 19, 2011 02:03 AM
Renée Donohue~Home Photography
Savvy Home Pix - Allegan, MI
Western Michigan Real Estate Photographer

Absorption is absolutely essential to pricing a home to SELL. 

Feb 19, 2011 02:54 AM
Tammie White, Broker
Franklin Homes Realty LLC - Franklin, TN
Franklin TN Homes for Sale

I know it's hot in FL during the summer and that's why inventory may be down. But if I were looking to sell, I'd put my home on the market when the inventory is the lowest.

Feb 19, 2011 03:18 AM
Sandy Shores FL Realtor®, Melbourne Real Estate
M & M Realty of Brevard Inc. - Melbourne, FL
Brevard County Real Estate, Florida's Space Coast

Carol, Market inventory and absorption rates are crucial items to look at when marketing a home for sale.

Feb 19, 2011 03:27 AM
Karen Kruschka
RE/MAX Executives - Woodbridge, VA
- "My Experience Isn't Expensive - It's PRICELESS"

Carol  This should prove to be an interesting and useful tool

Feb 19, 2011 03:33 AM
Brad Baxter
Brad Baxter, Weichert, Realtors - McDonald-McKinney - Fishers, IN
Indianapolis Real Estate Broker

I agree that this information should be used on all listing presentations.  You need to set expectations clearly up front about how many homes are selling and how you are going to help the sellers be the next one sold.  Sometimes this data is helpful in extending a listing contract beyone the old standard of 6 months.

Feb 19, 2011 04:43 AM
JodiAnn Garone
Century 21 Action Plus Realty - Freehold, NJ
Bringing you Home!

Well said..thank you for sharing

Feb 19, 2011 05:22 AM
Barbara Altieri
Better Homes and Gardens RE Shore and Country Properties - Shelton, CT
REALTOR-Fairfield County CT Homes/Condos For Sale

Carol -- Absorption rates are critical to pricing.  You really have some wild fluctuations. I post the absorption rate trending monthly which is a valuable analysis tool.

Feb 19, 2011 06:49 AM
Elizabeth Cooper-Golden
Huntsville Alabama Real Estate, (@ Homes Realty Group) - Huntsville, AL
Huntsville AL MLS

Carol, I'm a absorption rate NUT...I feel it is so important to educate our sellers.  Great article and so easy to understand for those that are new to "absorption" rates.

Feb 19, 2011 07:13 AM
Patricia Aulson
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOME SERVICES Verani Realty NH Real Estate - Exeter, NH
Realtor - Portsmouth NH Homes-Hampton NH Homes

Thanks for the information.  Good read today, lots of helpful comment as well.

 

Patricia/SEacoast NH & ME

Feb 19, 2011 07:58 AM
Bill Burchard
3B Realty: 951-347-3818, CA - Murrieta, CA
Broker, Realtor, Representing Buyers and Sellers

Good afternoon, Carol. Real estate values are in a constant state of flux and the Months of Inventory is a nice tool to help determine which direction prices are likely to swing... higher or lower.

Feb 19, 2011 09:26 AM
TIM MONCRIEF
Tim Monciref - Austin, TX
Over 2,000 homes sold…..

You are correct, but there are times where MOI is very misleading.  I am in Austin and our MOI in my farm area up to $800k is between 4 and 7.  Must be a good market right?  Wrong.  I am in an area where listings have stabilized and demand has yet to hit the market.  So the lack of inventory distorts the reality.  We are at our lowest inventory levels in 16 years.  The downside for me, is that there are too few listings to sell.  We are just an anomaly.

Feb 19, 2011 10:51 AM
Gary Woltal
Keller Williams Realty - Flower Mound, TX
Assoc. Broker Realtor SFR Dallas Ft. Worth

Carol I love how you have correlated the raw numbers to seasonality. Very astute on your part.

Feb 19, 2011 12:23 PM
John Novak
Keller Williams Realty The Marketplace - Las Vegas, NV
Henderson, Las Vegas and Summerlin Real Estate

Interesting numbers. How do you account for the volatility from February through April? In '09 MOI fell by half in March then spiked by four times in April. In '10 it was the opposite result -- inventory jumped in March, then fell drastically in April.

Feb 19, 2011 12:45 PM
Ruthmarie Hicks
Keller Williams NY Realty - 120 Bloomingdale Road #101, White Plains NY 10605 - White Plains, NY

This is such a tough concept for sellers.  I had a listing appointment where there was 3 years of inventory on the market.  The place as a mess...I gave them two prices - one for fixing it up and one for leaving it as -is...and suggested a generous  coop as well for the buyers agent.  They listed with somone else - at the higher price doing none of the work suggested with the lower coop....all I can say to the LA is "Good LUCK!"

Feb 19, 2011 01:53 PM
Lora "Leah" Stern 914-772-4528
Coldwell Banker, 170 N Main Street, New City NY 10956 - New City, NY
Real Estate Salesperson

Carol, this is a great and easily understandable way of presenting the absorption data to your sellers.  It should also proove to be a great listing tool.

Feb 19, 2011 03:02 PM
Sharon Alters
Coldwell Banker Vanguard Realty - 904-673-2308 - Fleming Island, FL
Realtor - Homes for Sale Fleming Island FL

Carol, we were out at the beach today showing homes in Oceanwalk ~ what a coincidence that you wrote this piece on Neptune Beach! This is a very interesting analysis - I also love Absorption Rate for helping Sellers understand that they must price their homes aggressively if they want to sell. Congrats on the Gold Star :)

Feb 19, 2011 03:15 PM
Lynn B. Friedman CRS Atlanta, GA 404-617-6375
Atlanta Homes ODAT Realty - Love our Great City - Love our Clients! Buckhead - Midtown - Westside - Atlanta, GA
Concierge Service for Our Atlanta Sellers & Buyers

Dear Carol,

Brad (#16) makes a good point - "set expectations up front".

Since every Seller thinks his/her house is the best and most valuable, understanding your lesson about inventory will really help them.  

Thanks for the interesting post.

Have a happy day - 
Lynn

 

Feb 19, 2011 05:51 PM
Elizabeth Byrne
Keller Williams Realty - Arlington, VA
Arlington Virginia Real Estate

Great analysis and advice to make months of inventory part of selling strategy. Thank you for sharing your experience with us.

Feb 19, 2011 11:55 PM
Carol Zingone
Berkshire Hathaway Home Services Florida Network Realty - Jacksonville Beach, FL
Global Realtor in Jax Beach, FL - ABR, CRS, CIPS

Tim: Thanks for visiting!


Michael: VERY true, especially in our area; about 50% of our sales are distressed sales these days.

Cory: Thanks. This is something that DOES need to be presented as the B&W snapshot of the market.

Renee: And, it can help an agent determine which sellers are truly motivated and which are not.

Tammie: Our cycle is pretty typical, I think, but haven't seen the data of other markets to truly compare.

Sandy: Thanks, I agree.

Karen: It's a micro-market perception, but useful to see when Neptune Beach has more months of inventory than overall Jacksonville!

Brad: Very true, and good point about the listing agreement length of time.

JodiAnn: Thanks for reading!

Gary: Thanks! That is the way I pulled the data from our local MLS.

John: Having looked at it a few more times now, I have to dive deeper to explain; this is the way I pulled the data from our local MLS.

Ruthmarie: Sometimes, that is all we can do!

Leah: Thanks! I will incorporate into all listing presentations moving forward!

 

Barbara: Thanks & this is a tiny beachside community, nestled between Atlantic Beach and Jacksonville Beach - so the numbers are more "extreme" than a larger market.

Elizabeth: I try to find ways to present information that are easy for the consumer to understand.

Patricia: I LOVE reading the comments; someone always finds a point that I did not see myself.

Bill: I agree, and it can help a Realtor maintain the business side of the conversation vs the emotional side.

Tim: All statistics can be misleading to a certain extent; this example is an extreme one, hence the wild swings month to month. This community is about 4000 households, so it is a micro-snapshot.

Frank & Sharon: Thanks! Sometimes, I have no real plan for when I'm posting something, it just happens I pull it out and post it!

Lynn: I agree, setting expectations up front is crucial.

Elizabeth: Thanks!

 

 

Feb 20, 2011 12:33 AM