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The sky is falling... and the bubble is coming...

By
Real Estate Agent with Century 21 Results Realty GA RE Lic # 282060

Sorry to disappoint. 

I picked up a story today about a "Bubble Blogger" in San Fransisco.  I actually enjoyed the article.  Here is the link.  I have read a few of these bubble blogs in the last couple of years.  Some are quite educated, and others are just rants.  I actually haven't read this particular blog, although I will be putting it on my reading list.  I just wanted to talk about the news story...

First, was it a slow news day in San Fransisco?  Was there nothing else negative happening in real estate for the paper?  The reason I say this is two-fold.  Not only is there some sort of perverse desire on the parts of some in the media to constantly have a negative real estate story in the news, but this one isn't even that strong

Next, if one makes a plausible, but vague prediction, and then attaches no time frame to it, it will probably come true.  I can predict that the stock market will hit 20,000 as well as say that it will suffer a 10% correction.  In the next several years, both of those will come true.  That isn't some amazing feat of prognostication.  

Finally, I see that Mr. Killelea was looking to buy a house in Berkeley in 1999.  I'm curious (and maybe one of you agents local to that market can tell me) what the prices were then, and what they are now.  Had he bought the over-priced home eight years ago, what would his position be now?  What was the median price in 1999, and what is it now?  

In conclusion, I just want to point out that it is easy to make a vague prediction with no timeline and eventually have it come close to true.  Making a specific prediction about the market, that includes a reasonable timeline is a LOT more difficult.  But, let me say here that another housing bubble is coming.  I won't say when or where, but it's coming... 

 

Oh yeah... Comments?  Ratings? 

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Unless otherwise noted, all content of this blog is the property of Lane Bailey, ©2012 Lane Bailey. 

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Comments (8)

Toby Boyce
C.G. Boyce Real Estate Co. - Delaware, OH
MBA, Delaware Ohio
Love the comments on the article as well -- could it be that SF Gate was looking for a way to generate more readers to their blog? we interview this guy and there will be comments. Strange new world for journalists.
Sep 25, 2007 03:07 AM
Dan Forbes
Bradenton, FL

Good thoughts about the "bubble."

Thank you for taking the time to read my post, You Can't Get to the Right Place by Going the WRONG WAY!, and thanks for making a comment.

Sep 25, 2007 03:08 AM
Nancy Moeller
Seven Gables Real Estate - Anaheim Hills, CA
Here's a rating and kudos for a great post. Yes, the sky is falling again and then it's not and so is the cycle.
Sep 25, 2007 03:25 AM
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy
Thank all.  I appreciate the feedback.  I'd still love to hear from one of the agents local to that area about historical values. 
Sep 25, 2007 08:48 AM
Sarah Nopp
South Sound, WA

I think it just illuminates how the focus of news companies goals have changed. The newspaper has to sell and entertain. Serious Journalism doesn't necessarily support either goal.
Such a frustration. It is no wonder so many Americans look to the Internet and International sources for solid reporting.

And Thanks for leaving comments on my Blog too! I love this sort of feedback from all perspectives.

Sep 25, 2007 09:31 AM
Donna Yates
BHGRE - Metro Brokers - Blue Ridge, GA
Blue Ridge Mountains
Lane:  I predict that your prediction will come to pass.  You make a very good point about the timeline.  I just had a simialr conversation with a past client of mine today.  It won't be long and the media will find some other industry to pick on for a while.  They will get bored with us.  Good post.
Sep 25, 2007 12:50 PM
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy
Thank you both.  I'm never short of an opinion... and often willing to hang it out for a prediction or two. 
Sep 25, 2007 02:04 PM
Sarah Nopp
South Sound, WA
I am hoping for a nice juicy political scandal Donna!
Sep 25, 2007 03:36 PM