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Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory following a much weaker than expected consumer confidence reading. The stock markets are posting moderate gains again with the Dow up 17 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The Conference Board posted their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September late this morning, showing a reading of 99.8. This was much lower than the 104.5 that was expected and was the lowest reading since November 2005. That indicates that consumers were far less confident in their own financial situations than many had thought. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually translates into weaker levels of consumer spending.

The National Association of Realtors reported that home resales fell 4.3% last month, which was close to forecasts. This was the sixth consecutive monthly drop in sales, indicating that that the housing sector continues to weaken. However, this data is not considered to be highly important to mortgage bonds, therefore, its results have failed to influence rates this morning.

August's Durable Goods Orders will be posted early tomorrow morning. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Current forecasts call for a drop in orders in the neighborhood of 3.5%. A larger decline could help bond prices and cause mortgage rates to drop tomorrow. However, a smaller than expected decrease would indicate a stronger than expected manufacturing sector that would likely help push mortgage rates higher Wednesday.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

*Information posted here is also posted on my website at: http://www.family-home-loans.net/DailyRateLockAdvisory

*Provided by a la mode, inc

 

14 Comments on Market update - lock or float (September 25th)

good words dude....nice lock considerations over your time terms.

09/25/2007 07:28 PM by Larry Bettag - Cherry Creek Mortgage


I plan on posting this daily as it is updated on my site as well...I was just a little late on this one!  Look forward to seeing you commenting on other posts!

09/25/2007 07:34 PM by Andrew Scherer - Reverse Mortgages (NRMLA) (Eagle Nationwide Mortgage)


me too, usually, but I can't take the risk with my clients now unless it's a definite...

09/25/2007 08:10 PM by Andrew Scherer - Reverse Mortgages (NRMLA) (Eagle Nationwide Mortgage)


Lock at one lender, float at another - just as always.  That's just one advantage of being a broker and having the freedom to do whatever is best for my customer, every single time. 

09/25/2007 09:40 PM by www.nosurpriseloans.com


Ted, coming from the broker side in the past, that is bad business practice to burn both ends of the rope at the same time; if the A/E or lender knew that you were doing that (unless already pre-approved to do so), you could get your contract revoked with the lender.

So, if you want to what is best for your clients, stay in the business and do it the right way.

09/25/2007 09:55 PM by Andrew Scherer - Reverse Mortgages (NRMLA) (Eagle Nationwide Mortgage)


Thanks for the input Andrew.  My loyalty is to my customers and every single one of my AE's knows that.  I cannot in good conscience see that I could get a better rate and program for my customer and tell them "Sorry, you'll just have to pay more because I've already locked with lender A."   If other professionals are limited to one lender, then the rate vs. lock decision is certainly a nail-biting one.  When you have more flexibility - you aren't pushed to that brink repeatedly.

I'm not posting an ad in the broker vs. banker battle - because there is plenty to recommend both sides of the coin.  When it comes to knowing that the customer will get the very best rate specifically BECAUSE of this flexiblity - the results (pertaiing to this aspect) speak for themselves.

09/26/2007 04:33 PM by www.nosurpriseloans.com


I'm curious if your A/E's know that you are doing this?  If they are aware of this and everything is kosher...great!  Rock on!  If not, I would be especially careful with this practice.  I was strongly against this practice when I was a Sales Director for 5 broker shops and I guess why I am so persistant with this topic; I knew what the consequences were if the lender found out that I was doing that. 

I do agree that the broker vs banker battle has been waging for quite some time.  I have been on both sides of the industry.  Have you seen the secondary and/or bank side of things, or have you always been a broker?  The reason I ask this (to show you my cards - persay) is because I want to see if you've seen the difference in rates and programs from retail (bankers) to wholesale (brokers).

Your statement about the best rate is a little off in my opinion.  How many brokers add yield to their loans so they get paid more money?  Quite a few!  How many brokers explain yield to their customers?  Not all too many!  How many brokers charge discount points (when really their origination points)?  A lot from what I have seen and employed and again fired!

Aside from that little tangent on bankers vs. brokers, in my opinion, it is wrong what you are doing with regard to the lock and floats, and from what I know of the industry, if you get caught there are consequences (not just a slap on the hand).

09/26/2007 04:51 PM by Andrew Scherer - Reverse Mortgages (NRMLA) (Eagle Nationwide Mortgage)


Again, thanks for your input Andrew.  I am not here to answer for the actions of other brokers.   Speaking only for myself, I explain everything to my customers and have never charged a "discount point" in my career.  This is consistent with the pledges I make as a member of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers and the Michigan Mortgage Broker's Association.  If someone closed a loan with neither yield nor origination points they would be doing it for free.  I'm guessing that there aren't many people in the industry who place such little value on their time as to work for free - and I would suppose that includes you as well.

My comment about the best rate was simply related to the concept of a direct lender having only one option - their own company.  If a decision is made to lock and rates fall in general, the customer will wind up paying a higher rate than they otherwise could have if they were dealing with a broker who had the flexibility to close with more than one lender.  It was not a general comment that "Broker's have the best rates."  I personally shy away from absolute statements.

I have only worked as a broker, but have examined the concept of working internally in the past and have seen the pricing structure.  (To show my cards per se.)

You are entirely entitled to your opinion, and I'm not one to engage in protracted blogging wars with people who have differing viewpoints.  This is, after all, your blog - therefore it's "Your dime, your dance floor."  All I was doing was commenting, and if you feel the need to post yet another response to "Have the last word." then I can live with that.  I wish you nothing but happiness, success, peace, and joy in your business and personal lives.

09/27/2007 08:20 AM by www.nosurpriseloans.com


Ted, I definitely agree that brokers and LO's should not work for free.  However, that being said, I am firmly against (and I'm sure you do as well - being a member of NAMB) brokers who use the "discount point" as part of their revenue instead of being upfront.  If you say that you have your client's interests at the top of your priorty list, then I trust you on that!  I just wanted you to be aware that there are consequences in volved with those particular practices (locking at one lender and floating at another).

But, in the same thought, we are definitely at differing opinions on this one, but I thank you for the kind wishes.  My main goal wasn't to offend you or spell "per se" wrong (thank you for the correction; I've been wondering for quite some time how to spell that correctly).  However, it was to get my viewpoint out there for you to hear and was entirely based on my experience (as I have let people go from companies because of this practice).

I do appreciate your comments, and I definitely look forward to more of these debates, or possibly agreements in the near future!  Take care, Ted!

09/27/2007 09:39 PM by Andrew Scherer - Reverse Mortgages (NRMLA) (Eagle Nationwide Mortgage)


Ted -  I am going to have to agree with Andrew... yeah, it may be best for your client but if you do that here in the Washington / Baltimore market you would be blacklisted......   maybe it is just me, but I can not do that -  unless the spread is way off between lenders and at that point there is usually a rate negotiation.....   my 2 cents.....

09/29/2007 07:32 PM by Lewis Poretz - Open Mortgage - Maryland Mortgage Expert


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Loan Officer: Andrew Scherer - Reverse Mortgages (NRMLA) (Eagle Nationwide Mortgage)
Andrew Scherer - Reverse Mortgages (NRMLA)
Meriden, CT
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