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Good News in the Phoenix Market

By
Real Estate Agent with Keller Williams Arizona Realty

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS ~ Chief Executive Officer, Keller Williams Arizona Realty

www.PacellaGroup.com

It is no secret that many things have been impacting the status and possible recovery of our real estate market.  Finding ourselves in the position that we're in began with a sharp and unsustainable level of appreciation, particularly in 2005, followed by the collapse of financial and banking institutions in 2007, and exacerbated by sudden unemployment; so in addition to watching the market itself, it's important to watch some other economic indicators, as well.

I have been noticing what I believe to be positive momentum in our market, and a lot of activity within our business, but being the data geek that we know me to be, I needed to back it up with the numbers ~ As Gary Keller states, numbers are sexy because they represent facts.

In observing the economy in general, we know that last month, the consumer confidence rate rose to 70.4, which is the highest level since February of 2008.  We also know that Initial and continuing claims for unemployment fell in the last few weeks of February and that unemployment is currently 8.9%.  That's not a great variance from the 9% that we've been experiencing, but a decrease is at least moving in the right direction.  We also know that mortgage interest rates are hovering under 5%, which is a slight increase, but still exceptionally affordable.

In regard to the market specifically, I tend to keep an eye on absorption.  As I've previously mentioned, I became obsessed with absorption in late 2007 when each week I would anticipate the day it would rise above 5%.  The current level of absorption in the Phoenix metro area is 24.1% ~ we've come a long way, baby!

The data geek in me couldn't resist comparing our current rate of absorption with the last time I included information regarding absorption, which was January 14th (absorption describes the amount of active inventory available, versus the rate of listings going pending)  With the exception of Paradise Valley, whose absorption has remained steady, and Cave Creek that has had a decrease in absorption, all other cities have seen approximately 5% increase in absorption in about eight weeks!

City

January Absorption

Current Absorption

Ahwatukee

14.4%

20%

Anthem

19.3%

26.1%

Cave Creek

16.6%

13.8%

Chandler

20.0%

25.8%

Fountain Hills

15.9%

16.6%

Gilbert

21.1%

26.7%

Glendale

20.6%

27.6%

Mesa

19.1%

24.6%

Paradise Valley

07.5%

07.5%

Peoria

21.2%

25.8%

Phoenix

20.2%

25.7%

Scottsdale

14.3%

15.9%

Surprise

21.7%

24.4%

Tempe

16.6%

23.0%

  Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

• There are 27,118 single family detached listings currently in MLS. That is a decrease of 785 listings from last week, and five consecutive weeks of decrease.

• There are 33,387 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, townhomes, patio homes and lofts.

For additional information regarding the Phoenix real estate market, contact us at www.PacellaGroup.com

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Comments (1)

Todd Anderson
You In Park City group - KW Park City Keller Williams Real Estate - Park City, UT
Park City | Deer Valley Real Estate

It is always good to hear some good news that is actually based on facts.

Mar 06, 2011 09:42 AM