I ran across this article from Kiplinger Forecasts this morning.  It does a fair job of addressing the question on every troubled home owner’s mind:  Is there a bail out coming? 

So far, the answer appears to be no.   Despite high level legislative chatter, the recent Bush proposal for FHASecure—the details of which remain vague, and the inevitable debate about the “moral hazard” of keeping the dirty bath water to save the baby, no broad plan has emerged.  That may be understandable in light of the fact that 70% of the foreclosure problem exists in 7 states.  If your state didn’t contribute to the problem, do you want to pay for its solution?

And yet there is something bigger at stake.

The foreclosures in those 7 states will have a broad negative impact on consumer spending.  That hurts retail sales and profits, and ultimately jobs.  The negative wealth effect and spending pull-back on the part of foreclosure victims is actually the smaller part of the problem.  Think about the much larger group who won’t lose their homes.  They’re feeling the pinch too.  And they’ll spend less as a result.  It’s like the scare-movies they show you in driver’s training.  Even though that wasn’t your blood on asphalt, you’ll drive a little more carefully after seeing what happened to the other guy.

(read the rest)

 
This post has been included in California Information

9 Comments on Stressed Home Owners: Is There a Bailout in the Works?

SEP
27
2007
379,537 Points 1 Featured Post Outside Blog

I think that the consumers who are having a hardship with their home are pretty much stuck. The FHA secure isn't going to help very many people.

Sean Allen

9:05pm • #1
184,930 Points 2 Featured Posts Outside Blog
I am curious - what type of bailout would you like to see?
10:06pm • #2
OCT
01
2007
3 Featured Posts

Matthew, I'd like to find a way for folks who are upside down in value be able to refinance their adjustable and subprime 1st mortgages and avoid the large payment increases that are putting them out on the street. 

Most of the problems are cause by the 1st loans, not the 2nd's that were piggybacked behind those 1sts.  The idea behind FHA Secure is a good one.  Get FHA to allow a refi of toxic 1st loans and a resubordination of the 2nd to a combined LTV that exceeds 100% of the property value. 

But the challenge is finding the holder of the 2nd loan and getting them to agree quickly to the resubordination.  The loans, like other mortgages, are securitized, packaged, sliced and diced, and sold to various investors presumably all over the world.  Finding someone to talk to is a problem.  Getting them to agree is an even bigger challenge.  Accomplishing all that before the homeowner goes belly up is darn near impossible. 

Perhaps we can legislate a mandatory or automatic resubordination of these 2nds, something that does not require asking their permission.  The 2nd holder would lose nothing, in fact they would avoid losses from foreclosures.  The home owner gets to live to fight another day.  She avoids the big payment shock and gets into a safe 30 yr FHA mortgage with no surprises.  We reduce the number of foreclosures which stabilize the real estate market and consumer spending.

3:08pm • #3
1 Featured Post

I am just a little bit too much of a free-market man to buy in to a bail out.  We will be in tough shape for a while, but we will be in tougher shape if we make the same mistake again.  Local lending, local accountability, and people with downpayments. 

3:54pm • #4
3 Featured Posts

Rich, we ought to be smart enough to correct future problems whether or not we bail homeowners out today.  The "moral hazard" of inadvertently helping out speculators in an attempt to keep honest homeowners in their homes seems small compared to the economic damage done by dispensing tough love.

 


4:18pm • #5
3 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor
anyone remember the days of the 125%'s     oh boy --------------
7:30pm • #6
3 Featured Posts
Lewis...they're back!   125% that is.  And all we had to do was buy a home a year or two ago and our loan is now a 125%. 
7:44pm • #7
3 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor
Cityscape, Master Financial, Chevy Chase, The Money Store, DMC ---   i think i am having a mortgage flashback!!!!  someone slap me....
8:42pm • #8
OCT
02
2007
3 Featured Posts
Consider yourself slapped!
2:36pm • #9

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Marc Brinitzer

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