.50 percent rate cut, what did we get?

Inquiring minds might be wondering what's changed since the 50 basis point cut by the Fed.

List of What's Changed

  • Perception has changed.
  • Any perception of the Fed as being concerned about inflation went out the window.
  • Any perception of the Fed as being concerned about the dollar went out the window.
  • Bulls are the happiest they have been in months.
  • The stock market is higher.
  • Gold is higher.
  • Oil is higher.
  • The Prime Rate dropped 50 basis points.

That's really about it. But what was the reason for the panic cut? Asset backed securities received no bids, the commercial paper market was in the dumps, and this all started with a mess in subprime mortgages that spread to mortgages in general, and foreclosures are now soaring. The jobs market is also very weak with huge mass layoffs by financial organizations.

List of What Hasn't Changed

  • Mortgage Rates. (Actually mortgage rates rose since last week as the chart below shows).
  • Auto Loan Rates. Nearly identical to last week.
  • Home Equity Loan Rates. Nearly identical to last week.
  • The outlook for jobs. (If anything the outlook is weaker judging from the Fed's panic.)
  • Credit Card Interest Rates.
  • The foreclosures outlook did not change. It is still bleak.

So did that 50 basis point cut help anyone? Yes, it helped (temporarily) those in the stock market. It helped (again temporarily) bail out Bernanke's banking buddies by providing more short term liquidity. It helped those short the dollar and long gold.

But did it do anything to address cash strapped consumers in way over their heads in houses they cannot afford? The answer to that is no.

 
Post is included in group: Delaware Ohio Real Estate

6 Comments on .50 percent rate cut, what did we get?

SEP
28
2007

Jeff

Give it a chance, to work. The effect will be more stabilization and a positive economic environment.

We don't need a recession!! The FED knows that. Let them keep us out of the hole.

Our fast paced information world is full of second guesses, but time will tell.

The only real inflation I experience is from Chinese demand for our raw products.

You make good points, thanks for sharing your insight.

BC

12:28pm • #1

Jeff,   I am supprised with your posting.  As a banker, I would think you know that the drop in the discount rate would not affect long term rates (ie Mortgages).   The increase you mention is the fact that the markets had already factorred the decrease into mortgage rates. 

The Fed Funds rate only affects short term lending.  I believe the motivation was as Mission Realty says, "We don't need a recession"  They wanted to stop the tide going in that direction.   The opposide side of Recesson is Inflation,  therefore the increase in Gold Prices (my opinion).  Also the prospect of an improving economy would cause stocks to improve. 

Loans that were tied or keyed to the Prime rate did improve.   But as I said that is generally short term lending.   Some HELOC and Credit Cards are tied to it as well, so those have improved.  

Will restate I believe the Fed did what they did to hopefully change the direction of the economy.  

1:05pm • #2

thanks guys, I think , the you think, we all learn

 

5:13pm • #3

We don't need a recession!

I think the Die has already beeen cast

Its the D word they are worried about

most data out their reflects what was happening a Qtr to 2 ago

 history will tell

 After the created Recessions from AG, I am all for Ben B and his judgement

Bull or Bear, I plan on growing my business's and watching my children grow

5:17pm • #4
SEP
29
2007
104,117 Points 5 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Jeff, My accountant shares your take on current market conditions, and I respect his opinion. So I'm with you on this one.
11:42am • #5
249,351 Points 3 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Jeff,

Looks like the purpose of the rate cut was to add liquidity to the financial markets and hope that this would help straighten out the mortgage market, too. If it does, it won't happen in the near future, though. And that won't help much in the current foreclosure dilemma.

10:39pm • #6

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Jeff Tumbarello

North Fort Myers, FL

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Public Trust Mortagge Corp

Address: 3600 Broadway Unit 5, Fort Myers, Fl, 33901

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