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Bay Area Top Financial Advisor Discusses Economic Impact From Japan and Mid-East - San Jose, Ca

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Mortgage and Lending with Stearns Lending, LLC

Bay Area Top Financial Advisor Discusses Economic Impact From Japan and Mid-East - San Jose, Ca: One thing I truly enjoy as a mortgage professional is the people I meet.  During my career, I've had the opportunity work with and meet some awesome folks and excellent business leaders!  One in particular is Ronald Matsui, Financial Advisor.  Ronald is the owner of Matsui & Associates, a financial advisor practice of Ameriprise Financial Services.  

I have known Ronald for several years and have worked with many of his Ronald Matsui, Financial Advisor and owner of Matsui & Associates, a financial advisor practice of Ameriprise Financial ServicesRonald Matsui, Financial Advisor and owner of Matsui & Associates, a financial advisor practice of Ameriprise Financial Servicesclients to help them purchase and refinance their properties.  As a financial advisor and economist, Ronald was recently recognized as a Top Wealth Manager in the Bay Area by the San Francisco Business Times.  Ronald is an exceptional financial advisor and economist and I recently had a chance to ask him about the economic impact from the recent events in Japan and the Mid-East.

Long-Term Economic Impact

Q: We see the horrible destruction from the earthquake and tsumani in Japan and the upheaval in the Mid-East.  From a financial advisor's standpoint, what kind of effect might these events have long-term economically?               

A: "My take in a nutshell is that while these issues represent major short-term problems, they don't seem to have negative long-term implications. The rise in oil caused by the Libya and Bahrain crises have been in fact negated by Japan's tsunami crisis in which the world's 3rd largest economy was expected to have a reduced demand on oil, causing oil to retrench."

Recent Stock Sell Off

Ronald Matsui, Financial Advisor and owner of Matsui & Associates, a financial advisor practice of Ameriprise Financial ServicesQ: What do you make of the recent stock sell off in global markets?

A: "The past Japanese natural disasters and even for other developed nations', did not have lasting long-term negative implications to their economy nor to the global economy. It 'seems' that the recent sell-off in global markets is moreso due to a 'short-term reason' to sell following the strong market performance from September 2010 thru February 2011."  

 

Overall Economic Health

Q: We still seem to get mixed information when it comes to the economy.  As a financial advisor, what are you telling clients?

A: "Currently, I see continued strong leading economic data pouring from the US, such as February's strong jobs data, in addition to improving manufacturing data across nearly all regions in the US. Thus, I find us in a makeshift quandary in which the short term technical data is worsening, but our longer term fundamental economic health is improving. This forces the question of "how severe do I think (and the strategists and economists I follow) the current global crises will impact the longer term improving economic cycles?" While it's very possible to breach the important figure of 1250 on the S&P in the short term, the fundamental data points upwards above 1340, even now." 

Buy, Sell or Stay The Course?

Q: Again, as a financial advisor, are the Asian market sell-offs justified?  Should we be buying, selling or staying the course?

A: "The majority conclusion seems to be the same in that while the sell off in Asia is justified, those Asian investors are likely being "forced" to sell global assets which results in this precipitated type of global sell off. However, since the short term oil spike and Japan's tsunami crisis don't appear to have severe negative implications on the global economy, and history verifies this, then staying the current course until our domestic US data proves otherwise, makes the most sense. Removing the emotional sway is critical in making these types of decisions." 

Stocks To Watch?Ronald Matsui, Financial Advisor and owner of Matsui & Associates, a financial advisor practice of Ameriprise Financial Services

Q: Are there particular stocks that you're watching at this time?

A: "In terms of specific investments that I may or may not be in favor of, as an investment fiduciary, I am of course limited in disclosing certain positions whether for my account or client accounts. I can state that on Wednesday, March 16th, I was viewing positively a few select holdings in the Japanese stock market, but I have to refrain from disclosing whether I actually made any investment at all. I can state that several institutional investors (whom were not clients at the time) were discussing the same. Why was I possibly eyeing investing at such a low point? By implementing thorough analysis and research, understanding the full risks, an investor can take advantage of investing in quality assets when they come up for sale at tremendous discounts every so often. If an investor were to have considered such a deep value investing strategy, it behooves the investor to be very wary of all investment risks, potential loss of principal, exercise extreme due diligence to the risky nature of this type of contrarian investing, then exploring the Nikkei and Topix indices can be places for an investor to start.

Looking ahead thru 2011 and 2012, my analysis has consistently painted a two-faced coin, and the probability of either situation unfolding remain very high. Institutional investors remain cautious for this reason, as we literally tread over unchartered waters that simultaneously eerily remind us of the stagflation fears of the 1970s while butting up against a secondary recession fear that occurred in 1937 (the recession within a recession). The one upside to this latent pessimism, is that the old Wall Street adage may hold true that 'bull markets climb a wall of worry.' Currently, my own analysis is not yet conclusive as to whether we are entering a cyclical "short term" or secular "long term" bull market. Perhaps by my next report, I will have a better unfolding of that next business cycle."

On a different note, speculation is that when the Fed ends its QE2 (Quantitative Easing 2) in June of this year, that the govt-backed endorsement of low rates will have substantially less support, which may argue against low rates. Of course, the Fed could orchestrate another Keynesian stimulus policy of QE3, which would support low rates again, but when you read the Fed's testimonies from various Fed governors, the argument in support of further Fed-backed stimulus is losing strength. If you google up then Fed governors' Mr. Thomas Koening and Mr. Kevin Warsh, you will see evidence of harshly conflicting perspectives within the Fed that has emerged in the past year or so."
Ronald Matsui, Financial Advisor and owner of Matsui & Associates, a financial advisor practice of Ameriprise Financial Services

If you have questions or need to speak a financial advisor, you can contact Ronald Matsui, Financial Advisor by clicking here or email Ronald.  And, for your mortgage questions, visit Troy's profile or email Troy

 

 

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Jun 20, 2015 05:08 AM