The Las Vegas Real Estate short sale market or The Las Vegas Short Sale Real Estate market.. not sure which one sounds better a little over one year later.
Well... here we are a little over one year later after a report I did about the reality of Las Vegas short sales.
Plenty of PR programs from the big loan servicers of how they are helping Joe and Jane Mainstreet move forward in life... No shortage of promises. But the true TEST is year over year performance so let's see where we are one year from my last report right here on good ole AR.
From the Las Vegas Short Sales Report posted on 02/27/2010:
The numbers below reflect AREAS 101 through 606 on the Las Vegas MLS which includes Las Vegas, North Las Vegas and Henderson, NV Real Estate. (And yes... this includes Summerlin Real Estate.)
Currently Available for Sale:
- 4,852 Short Sales (02/27/2010)
Currently In Escrow - Contingent / Pending
- 9,826 Short Sales in escrow! (02/27/2010)
To show how many lenders are bogging down Las Vegas Short sales for the Las Vegas real estate correction... let's take a look at how many of all those short sales are actually closing escrow.
- 684 of these were Las Vegas Short Sales (02/27/2010)
Year over Year performance when it comes to Las Vegas short sales..
In January of 2010:
- 684 Las Vegas Short Sales Closed Escrow
In January of 2011:
- 851 Las Vegas Short Sales Closed Escrow.
Nice... that's an increase in Las Vegas short sale closings of 19.7% year over year.
For February of 2011:
- 850 Las Vegas Short Sales that succesfully closed escrow.
Sounds good so far... but is that telling the whole story?
Las Vegas Short Sales for Sale in February of 2010
- 4,852 Short Sales (02/27/2010)
Las Vegas Short Sales for sale as of March 29th, 2011: (Areas 101 - 606 on the Las Vegas MLS)
- 7,272 Las Vegas Short Sales for Sale (03/29/2011)
A 66% increase in the number of Las Vegas short sales for sale. Kind of makes that 19.7% increase in Las Vegas short sale closings seem .... umm... kind of insignificant.
Short Sales in Escrow back on February 27th, 2010:
- 9,826 Las Vegas area short sales contingent or pending. (02/27/2010)
Closing 851 short sales in January of 2011 is really becoming less and less significant unless the number of Las Vegas short sales available dropped off the map. Obviously not the case when there are 7,272 of them currently available for sale and:
- 8,076 Las Vegas area short sales are currently in Contingent / Pending Status. (03/29/2011)
Whoops.... even though the amount of Las Vegas short sales currently available for sale has gone up 66%, we've had a 18% decline of short sales that have made it to that magical place called escrow where the real work begins.
At the rate of closing 851 short sales a month, that's averaging out to about 9 1/2 months to close the 8,076 of them currently in escrow. And believe it or not... I've actually had a short sale listing where the seller became pregnant right after the short sale package was submitted to the loan servicer and gave birth before the loan servicer approved their short sale.
Let's not forget the 7,272 currently available for sale. If you really think that no more are going to be coming up on the market for sale, I'll be happy to take that bet and give you 100 to 1 odds.
Signs of Improvement?
Well.... considering the passion of true short sale real estate agents is to help homeowners avoid foreclosure and becoming another sad statistic for a market that has no shortage of sad foreclosure statistics... I can't really say it's a sign of any significant improvement by the major loan servicers in moving the Las Vegas Real Estate market any step closer to a market that is going to go up in price anytime soon.
Anybody telling you otherwise may not know what is really going on, is inexperienced, should be selling used cars for a living or perhaps run for office. Take your pick, they'll qualify for all of the above positions.
That's not to say purchasing Las Vegas Real Estate is a bad investment... because when you run the pure investment calculations, I have no shortage of properties that are considered STELLAR real estate investments. Opportunities are available for those that wish to take the time to find a true investment real estate agent that can compare the alternative investments for your cash with SOLID, HARD numbers where betting on future appreciation is not even a factor.
And there is NO shortage of qualified buyers for Las Vegas Real Estate.
But Paul, Loan Servicers and Big Banks are Saying that Short Sales are their New Priority with new program after new program!
Yeah... well as somebody who made the business plan to get into Las Vegas short sales over three years ago, I've heard all about these programs that are going to make short sales better. But facts are facts and numbers don't lie and what I deal with every day suggests otherwise.
For me... short sales have gotten easier but that's more then likely due to experience then actual programs since the numbers suggest something different then the PR campaigns.
What I can tell you is that more buyers want NOTHING to do with attempting to purchase a Las Vegas short sale. NADA, NONE.... they've heard enough bad stories and have even experienced the frustration themselves.
That hardly helps the problem of owners wanting to do the right thing and trying a short sale... and hardly helps the problem of having to drop the asking prices for short sale after short sale until it becomes a deal that can't be passed up by somebody who has nothing but time to wait.
You would think that it would make more sense for a lender to approve a short sale then letting the home go to foreclosure but what most people do not know is that the majority of the loans out there are just being serviced by Big Bank name and racking up the servicing fees to the investors that actually own the loan.
Thought of the Day:
From Business Week:
Home Prices, Consumer Confidence Probably Decreased 03/29/2011
Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Brian T. Moynihan said the housing slump is the biggest challenge limiting the U.S. economic recovery.
“The problem of delinquent mortgages and falling home values is the most stubborn, entrenched and damaging economic problem our country faces today,” Moynihan said March 23 in Detroit, at a meeting of the city’s Economic Club.
Has program after program with money thrown at everything but a TRULY viable solution to help in processing short sales through the system in a timely manner really helped anything?
Maybe someday the powers to be will get it right and stop playing the games so everybody can move forward. But don't count on it when you read about things like this where it appears Nevada State Legislators would prefer to doctor appraisals as this article from the Appraisers Institute Suggests:
Four states – Illinois, Maryland, Missouri and Nevada – are considering legislation that would prohibit or restrict the use of “distressed sales,” such as foreclosures and short sales, as comparable sales as a part of a residential real estate appraisal.
I have to save the commentary for this one until Satirical Saturday...
Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group, REALTORS
Las Vegas Real Estate
*Information on Las Vegas MLS activity is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Sales numbers do not reflect For Sale by Owners or direct sales. Even if the information is not 100% exact... it is a pretty accurate reflection of what is going on in the Las Vegas short sale real estate market... or is it the Las Vegas Real Estate short sale market?