Special offer

We are headed for a double-dip housing recession

By
Real Estate Agent with Homes Northwest

double-dip

The Seattle area and the country as a whole appear to be headed into a double-dip housing recession, according to a new report.

The price of a typical home in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties declined 2.4 percent in January from December and 6.7 percent from January 2010, Standard & Poor’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reported Tuesday.

That was greater than the declines of 1 percent from December and 3.1 percent from a year earlier across all 20 cities that S&P tracks. Only one area had a larger monthly drop (Minneapolis, down 3.4 percent), while seven had larger annual declines.

Seattle-area values peaked in July 2007, dropped 25.3 percent to a low in February 2010 and then started falling again last August, after a homebuyer tax credit expired. Area values are now 5.7 percent below the August low and 29.6 percent down from the 2007 peak.

“Keeping with the trends set in late 2010, January brings us weakening home prices with no real hope in sight for the near future,” David Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s Index Committee, said in the report.

“These data confirm what we have seen with recent housing starts and sales reports. The housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery,” he added. “At most, we have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing.”

S&P defines a double-dip as its 10- and 20-city composites setting new post-peak lows. Eleven areas, including Seattle, posted new lows in January and the 10- and 20-city composites are now 2.8 percent and 1.1 above their respective April 2009 lows.

“At this point we are not too far off, and that is what many analysts are seeing with sales, starts and inventory data too,” Blitzer said.

A double-dip is the prediction of Patrick Newport, U.S. economist for IHS Global Insight.

“The double-dip should happen by June,” Newport wrote Tuesday. “Going forward, weak demand, foreclosures and a glut of homes for sale should translate into at least another 5 percent drop in the Case-Shiller composite indices. ”

Prices will turn around later this year, Newport predicted.

Only Washington D.C. and San Diego had year-to-year increases (3.6 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively), while Washington was the only area with a positive monthly change (up 0.1 percent).

S&P tracks changes in home values by looking at repeat sales of the same homes, rather than whatever happens to sell in a given month. It does not give actual prices.

The median sales price of a King County house was $334,000, down 10.5 percent from a year earlier and 6.2 percent from January, according to the most-recent report from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Tags what is a short sale, upside down mortgage, town and country washington,town and country real estate, town and country bellevue, short sale help, short sale vs foreclosure,Seattle Real Estate,foreclosure prevention,declining home prices, foreclosure, foreclosure help, home buying, how to stop foreclosure, paul nelson,pre foreclosure, bellevue short sale, christine nelson

 

By Aubrey Cohen

SEATTLEPI.COM STAFF

 

Frances C. Rokicki
Fran Rokicki Realty, LLC - Bolton, CT
Broker-Mentor,CRS

Paul, I believe that the horrible winter that we had, set back, many people with moving plans.   Once the weather improves, these buyers will be out and shopping for a new home.  The feds changing the pmi regs on April 18th isn't going to help, but, what can you do with the government?  You would think they would be wiser than to cause more costs to the first time buyers! 

Mar 29, 2011 12:00 PM