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....And reporting on time for the first time in a couple of days.  Here is the market update for October 1st.  The lock advisory hasn't changed - still locking for closings within 20 days.

Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following a weaker than expected manufacturing related report. The stock markets are also showing gains with the Dow up 114 points and the Nasdaq up 22 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, but we will likely still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to weakness late Friday.

Today's news came from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) who said that their manufacturing index for September fell to 52.0. This was lower than expected, indicating that manufacturer sentiment is waning. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it could mean slowing manufacturing activity. That could ease inflation concerns and make mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors.

The next relevant release doesn't come until Thursday when the Commerce Department will post August's Factory Orders data. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 2.5%. An unexpected rise could drive mortgage rates higher, while a weaker than expected reading should push them lower Thursday.

The Labor Department will post September's Employment report early Friday morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger then forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see a slight increase in the unemployment rate to bring it to 4.7%, an increase in new payrolls of approximately 100,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings.

Overall, look for Friday to be the big day of the week. The bond market will close early Friday ahead of the Columbus Day holiday and will reopen next Tuesday morning. This may create additional volatility in the markets as investors move to protect themselves over the long weekend.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

*Information can be found on my website: http://www.family-home-loans.net/DailyRateLockAdvisory

*Information supplied by a la mode, inc.

 

4 Comments on Market Update - Lock or Float (October 1)

Boy i like these....................    FLOAT ------

10/01/2007 07:51 PM by Lewis Poretz - Open Mortgage - Maryland Mortgage Expert


haha...you definitely lock to comment on them...I don't know about the float, though...

10/01/2007 08:07 PM by Andrew Scherer - Reverse Mortgages (NRMLA) (Eagle Nationwide Mortgage)


follow the 10 yr bond my brotha.............it was down today

10/01/2007 08:38 PM by Lewis Poretz - Open Mortgage - Maryland Mortgage Expert


I do follow it very very closely, but I don't trust just that...there's so much more involved, and I can't go just based on that.  eh...to each their own method to the madness...just glad you get some useful info out of this!

10/01/2007 08:49 PM by Andrew Scherer - Reverse Mortgages (NRMLA) (Eagle Nationwide Mortgage)


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Loan Officer: Andrew Scherer - Reverse Mortgages (NRMLA) (Eagle Nationwide Mortgage)
Andrew Scherer - Reverse Mortgages (NRMLA)
Meriden, CT
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