We expect declines in refinance activity will be the primary factor impacting our originations forecast for the full year 2011, with total mortgage originations decreasing to $1 trillion in 2011. However, we have increased our forecast for refinance originations given the dip in rates associated with global uncertainties. Increases in purchase originations will not be enough to offset the drop in refinances over the year, as mortgage rates reach 5.5 percent by the end of 2011. We expect that the refinance share of originations will drop from 70 percent in 2010 to 41 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark. We project that originations will be below $1 trillion in 2012. Thanks For Reading
Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 4/6/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.5 percent compared with the previous week
Refinance Index: decreased 6.2 percent to its lowest level since February 25, 2011, on a seasonally adjusted basis
Purchase Index: increased 6.7 percent to its highest level of the year
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 61.2 percent of total applications from 64.3 percent the previous week. This is the lowest refinance share since May 7, 2010.
Arm Share: increased to 6.1 percent from 5.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
Mortgage originations
Wynd Realty & Katz Realty Group - Alpharetta, GA
"REAL Solutions for Real Estate!"
hopefully this is just the calm before the storm, and by storm, I mean a good one!
Apr 10, 2011 01:25 PM
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