2011 1st Quarter Real Estate Market Activity - Westmoreland County PA
An odd thing happened on the way to writing this post. My research gave some puzzling results that had me going back to the data to verify carefully. But indeed it is true.
The disheartening news is that overall in Westmoreland County PA the first Quarter of 2011 saw fewer homes newly listed (down over 7%), fewer homes moved to "sale pending" status (down over 26%) and fewer homes actually sold (down over 9%) than in the first Quarter of 2010. At the same time, the total number of homes actively for sale in Westmoreland County PA at the end of the Quarter was up almost 4% - i.e., the inventory is increasing year over year.
Breaking this down by market segment gives us some more questionable news, as well as some decidedly good news. I define the segments as Under $150K (Value/Entry Level), $150K-$250K (Moderate/Entry Level), $250K-$350K (Upper Middle), $350K-$500K (High End), and Over $500K (Top Of Market).
Together, the Value and Moderate segments account for 80% of the inventory available for sale; nearly 80% of the new listings during the Quarter; and over 80% of the homes sold during the period. The bad news is that these segments are showing declines as compared to the same period of 2010. Total listings for sale, or inventory, at the end of the period are actually up about 3%, but new listings coming on the market are down 11%, and homes sold are down 14%. This all seems to point to a slowing market.
On the other hand, the upper tiers of the market are seeing decided improvement. In terms of inventory at the end of the period the Upper Middle is up 4% and the High End is up 11%, while the Top of Market is down 12%. New listings over the period are up 11%, 8% and 13% respectively. Average listings pended per month are down 17% in the Upper Middle, but up well over 60% in the two most expensive segments. Finally, in terms of sold homes, the Upper Middle is down about 4% but the High End are up 117% and the Top of Market is up 25%.
As with most statistical analyses data can be twisted and interpreted in many ways. Putting the best possible face on things perhaps we can say that a very difficult winter held market activity down in most segments. but the increase in inventory shows a degree of confidence about the future. And it is most definately a plus to increasing levels of market activity at the higher end.
My sense after only a couple weeks of the 2nd Quarter is that the pace is picking up nicely. This is based upon a close watching of MLS new listings and status changes. I am hopeful that 2nd Quarter Real Estate Market Activity in Westmoreland County PA will be a pleasant surprise to us all.
We will look at the real estate market activity in some core Townships of Westmoreland County PA next in order to bring the trends even more local. Unity Township and Hempfield Township and Penn Township are centrally located within Westmoreland County and are good barometers of county-wide activity.
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