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Gloom and Doom? Don't Believe It!

Market Down Slide Up Down Thumbs You can't get away from them – the "experts" who are eager to declare the worst. Yesterday's Baltimore Sun included this charming statement from an economist: "The existing-homes market is now in free-fall." But I also saw an article that appeared in the online Ventura County Star in late September, and it has one of the best discussions I've seen of the immense gap between the stories of real estate market meltdown that seem to be everywhere, and the reality you see when you step back a bit and take a calm look.

The article talks about what they are seeing in Ventura County which is in Southern California along the coast between Santa Barbara County and Los Angeles County. But much of what is true there is true elsewhere in the country, including my area of Maryland.

The gist of it can be summed up in a paraphrasing of Mark Twain's famous quip: "Don't worry, reports of the industry's impending doom are highly exaggerated. Buyers are still buying and sellers are still selling."

Market Panic Sure, the market isn’t what it was a few years ago, but there are many in the real estate business who believe the market was due for a correction, just as the stock market often drops when Wall Street believes that stocks are overvalued. The thing is, there are many positives in the market now. Mortgages are still available at historically low rates, and the economy is sound. There are still special programs for first-time buyers as well as safe and creative financing for other buyers.

Bedtime Story Like averages (which we know are meaningless!), headlines tell only a small part of any story. Certainly getting a good price for your home in a sale is important, or getting a great deal if you are buying. As the article points out, "People need to look at their own housing needs and not listen to others. You don't buy a home to make money, you do it as a place to raise your family, to put down roots, to feel secure."

Changing Leaf Housing markets go through cycles. The down markets follow up markets which follow down markets. People who have been in the industry long enough recognize they are as natural as the seasons. And the real estate professionals who have built their careers on service and value will find the ups just as exciting as everyone else, and the downs not nearly so deep.

Posted by Margaret Rome- Baltimore, Md.-HomeRome.com on 10/04/2007 06:44 PM

Comments (38)

real estate market, buyers, sellers, averages

Originally posted at: Margaret Rome's Blog: Gloom and Doom? Don't Believe It!

This post has been included in Maryland Information

38 Comments on Gloom and Doom? Don't Believe It!

OCT

2007

Margaret,

I can say that I am busier than I've ever been. The stories are out there, but they're not realistic for the nation. I'd say that they should stick to being local, but by the sounds of your article, that wouldn't be quite right either. Your statement at the end is so true. If we focus on doing business right, based on the right things, our valleys won't be so deep. Thanks for the positive post.

Margaret - Since I'm new to Real Estate I'm not familiar with the "cycles", but the people I work with who've been around 20 or so years say this is not as bad as it was in the 80's with the savings and loan troubles.

They all say that when it starts picking up and people stop reading all the doom and gloom our businesses will 'Pop".

I've chosen not to listen to the news and just stay busy and I've had all the business I can handle lately.

Here here!! Well done Margaret! This is so true of the media throughout the country. Real estate is cyclical, always has been, always will be. Do they spend this much time talking about the stock market? I think not!

Absolutely correct, on every point. Send it to the economist who wrote the dribble.

What is always missing from all of the writings of the economists is the cause of the housing debacle and it was, IMO, 9/11 and the subsequent fall-out.

I do have some opinions about the continuing reluctance of home buyers to commit, but, it could also apply to the "impending "free fall" of the stock market.

Thank you for this, Margaret. While we continue to see the media portraying the housing market negatively, there are so many signs that it is not as it is headlined, especially if you look locally or regionally. Yes, the market is not what is was a couple of years ago, but this shift has happened before and will happen again.

As you point out, there are so many reason for buyers TO buy (or sellers to sell) - but it is not necessarily the right decision for everyone, but that is always the case isn't it? I think we need to see more written about these issues so that consumers can have a more balanced set of information to consider and weigh for their own personal situations, as opposed to the media headlines. Thankfully, many I have talked to do not rely on the media headlines nor are they making decision based on them. Those that do are probably not really serious about buying or selling anyhow.

Jeff

That's how the media feeds itself, we either have to continue to work hard and ignore them or go along and be depressed. The market is a local market, it's different for each of our neighborhoods and in Redding CA the market is pretty stable.

They are all doing it. I was talking to my nurse a couple of days ago and she ask me if it is a good time to buy a home? First time home buyer and she is scared because of the media.

Great post...I blog on this topic often.

We have the same media hype up here filling buyers with false hope of snagging a new home for pennies on the dollar. The New Haven Register had a little blurb of gloom and doom the other day quoting some source declaring prices will continue to fall and they expect another 10% decline in 2008.

I just reviewed the third quarter numbers in my area and although sales volume is off about 5% from in the third quarter this year compared to the same period in 2006 the median selling price is up about 1%.

Margaret, This type of hype in the media sells newspapers and is a direct dis-service to the public, feeding on fear instead of giving reliable facts on why this is a good time to buy. This media will soon have to provide real information as market stats will prove things are not "bad". What is happening is an adjustment, which happens in various markets all the time.

Great post, well said and well timed. The folks that are relatively new in the industry need to hear from the veterans that we have seen worse and buying a home is what we do to provide shelter and pleasure in our lives and for our families. We have to live somewhere................

News papers are just triing to sell news papers. The sad fact is that at least here in the Omaha metro area there is really nother to support a long down turn other then the fact that media has got everyone scared.

Doesn't the media have some sort of responsibility to be objective about what they report? Or was my media class the only one that really made such a big deal about that? I can't believe the things I hear in the media every night - my teacher that I had way back in college is probably having kittens by now!

It is seasonal. And it's fall in the real estate industry isn't it? Does anyone think it's winter yet?

Seasons are natural and normal. But isn't fall supposed to be a little gloomy?

Let the news report doom and gloom...'tis the season afterall.

And it sets us up for a cozy winter and a phenomenal spring.

"Don't worry, reports of the industry's impending doom are highly exaggerated. Buyers are still buying and sellers are still selling."

I love this quote by Mark Twain. Thanks !

I always remind my Sellers that while they may get less for their home, they will also pay less for their next home.

I believe some of this is being fed by the very same people (out of state family mostly) that would call me and gloat that their house value was us by 50% that year. Now they're crying in their soup that their house isn't worth as much. Record gains are probably going to be followed by a period of deflation. The deflation is no where near as bad as the inflation was. I think the media contributed to the inflation and now they are doing their best to contribute to the deflation. They also need to realize that it isn't "the market". There are many markets even within a local market. Our lower priced listings are selling fast. Our upper market is languishing. Which market???

Wonderfully put! There will be buyer's as well as seller's. In this type of market, the seller's just have to be more realistic in their pricing.

I try not to read the headlines, which is hard and I definitely do not watch the news.

I feel this is a great market and time to buy. As you said, the interest rates are still historically low. Any buyer who is currently sitting on the fence waiting until the prices go down further, will find themselves priced out of the market when it turns and the rates go up along with the property values. That's when we will hear the "I should've bought when..."

Margaret,

Ever Boom has its Bust. Neither one is what its all and was all hyped up about.

Every market is composed of two markets....one market with houses priced well and in great condition and the other market is the other homes. Only homes from the first market sell.
Move your listings into the first market

Hi All, I will back tomorrow to comment. Thanks for the featured post and thank you for all the comments. The real quote of Mark Twain is "The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

OCT

2007

Margaret,

Like that Mark Twain's quip. Anyway, the market was due a correction in many over-heated parts of the country and we are getting it now. I'm not so sure about free-falling real estate prices in the resale sector as stated by that economist. Looks more like soft to me. At least thus far.

The market always changes. I remember when we were selling homes and the interest was 18%. That changed. And this will as well.

Andrew, Thanks for being the first to comment... Keep staying busy and .. focus on doing business right, based on the right things. ..

Linda, Great attitude...too busy listing and selling house to "listen" to the news.

Bruce, Your comments are appreciated.

Lenn, Thanks for your comments. As a successful buyer's agent, you see this reluctance a lot.

Jeff, You always have the right thing to say.."Thankfully, many I have talked to do not rely on the media headlines nor are they making decision based on them. Those that do are probably not really serious about buying or selling anyhow."

Chris and Maria, Hope your market stays strong. Now let's tell everyone we know about this good market.

Susan, This is the sad part...Qualified buyers are being scared away.

Dan and Brandon, Your comments are appreciated.

Pat ",... buying a home is what we do to provide shelter and pleasure in our lives and for our families. We have to live somewhere.."

Pat,Pattie and Roy, These headlines sell more papers.

Joey, Here's to the changing seasons.

Christina, Good point to remember

Missy, Hope you didn't mind my changinge the real quote of Mark Twain "The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

Chris " I think the media contributed to the inflation and now they are doing their best to contribute to the deflation."

Cris, It hard not to read the headlines these days.

Jason, Thanks for the comment.

Dora, Here's to all our houses being in the first market

Esko, Glad you like that Mark Twain "quip"

Bob and Carolin, Thanks for stopping by. The market always changes.

OCT

2007

So true, Margaret. That's why I've been working with local newspapers as president of my board of realtors, telling them the "local" story: We have a strong economy, unemployment is at 1% and we have ONLY four months worth of listing inventory. We are in a great market. I've done 12 op-ed visits in the past month.

I wouldn't say it is all gloom & doom, but the market is down - which it always cycles. BUT, it IS a BUYERS market, for those that have the financial ability to buy, they SHOULD BUY!!! Some are still buying!!!

Karen, Your board is so fortunate to have you as president! You are making a difference.

Ronald, Thanks for stopping by. Yes buyers are still buying and sellers are still selling.

Margaret, I haven't had a problem selling most of my listings this year. In fact, I wish I had more inventory! I have several buyers right now and can't find the right properties for them, so I can assure you we are not overflowing with inventory in my market area. It's a two-tiered market in my area with sellers who have to sell right away lowering their prices and those who don't remaining firm in their prices. For those who refuse to acknowledge the reality that this is a buyer's market, their homes may sit for a long time. Pricing properties right is critical at this time. I've recently sold two properties at full list price. My clients took my recommendation on pricing and we held out until we got the price (it took a week on one property and a month on the other).

OCT

2007

Gail, Sounds like you have a good handle on your market and are doing all the right things. You have been very "lucky "in the business. aka The harder you work..the luckier you get.

OCT

2007

Hi Margaret,
Thank you for this post and you are so right. The media has put a scare in our clients and we must undo the damage before they will be comfortable with selling or buying right now. Educate, educate!

Cynthia, That is one of our main jobs to always educate ourselves and our clients. Thanks for stopping by.

OCT

2007

Margaret,
So true..great post. Even though it's not like it was a couple of years ago, it's still not as bad as the national media makes it sound.

David and Kristin, Thank you! Just had closing today and another on Monday. Writing a contract and one is coming in. Not a bad market for me.

That's great Margaret! Also, we wanted to let you know that we decided on "FOR BIG RESULTS, CALL SMALL!! Thanks again for taking the time to talk to us. We REALLY appreciate it.

David and Kristin, I like "FOR BIG RESULTS, CALL SMALL!!

Wishing you much continued success! You are welcome.

OCT

2007

Great article! The Tucson paper on the front page of the Sunday ran a headline that said,"Now, is the time for Buyers to buy!" YIPPEEE It's about time they started seeing the upside of the market!
Hugs, Joeann

Thanks Joeann. Were your ears burning today? Had a wonderful lunch with Peg and your name came up. We both adore you!

Spoke about this being a great time to buy just yesterday when I was a guest on the radio show, ALL ABOUT REAL ESTATE. How is the youngest blogger doing?

OCT

2007

We just talked about this last night didn't we?! Well, you and I can spread this message to anyone who will listen. No matter the market conditions, success is really just an individual choice isn't it? That's one reason I don't read/watch/listen to the news. Okay, now I'm going to chose to go prospect for an hour! Love ya!

Jason, Enjoyed talking with you last night. No matter the market conditions, success is really just an individual choice isn't it? This is especially true in a market where news is always talking gloom and doom.

Good luck with your prospecting. Thanks again for introducing me to Linda Scanlan.

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