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HELP!!! My Crystal Ball is Cloudy!

If I am looking for good articles perhaps...some of you are too! One of the great benefits of this site is that we can exchange information, share and really make a difference for each other...

You see my crystal ball doesn't seem to be working lately. I have begged and pleaded, tried bribing it, polished it, and treated it very nicely but to no avail. Anyone know the name of a good Crystal Ball Repairman? It just doesn't want to tell me what everyone wants to know:

Have we hit bottom?
What area will be "hot" in the coming years
Are we on the upswing?
What is going to happen to prices in the next 6 months?
Is Key Marco going to take off?
Should I purchase a home or a condo? Which will perform better this year?

The truth be told, I won't know until it is too late and we are on the upswing everyone wants to be purchasing on. Everyone is afraid that they will purchase on the downswing. That is how it happens in Real Estate, there are too many variable to say definitively what will happen. We have indicators and such, but to be honest it is completely localized. In the same town the absorption rate can vary from 160 weeks to 34 weeks. What makes an area "hot" today can make it completely undesirable in a couple of years.

I am looking for things that are positive, that bring into reality what is going on in the Real Estate Market and helpful to the buyers that I have that are sitting on this lovely fence. Several people have written great posts about timing a purchase and I want to compile the list here, so if you have a post or a link to an article to help in the process of getting some of these buyers off the fence, post it here!

There are many factors that affect us all across the country - Baby Boomers, Generation X, the economy, insurance, disasters to name a few. How they will affect us will be dependent on many local things. But there are things that point out that now is the time to buy. Mortgage rates, lifestyle decisions, and the like play into the decision as importantly as are heading for an upswing in prices. You may purchase in the downswing while prices go a bit lower, but you run the risk of higher interest rates later on. If you are planning on keeping the property for long term, this setback is temporary. If you are too slow you could miss out on that perceived "better opportunity" only paying more and with a higher interest rate. Because that is also a possibility!

So I will start with a couple of links to assist those on the fence:

CNN - Article
My Articles - Attention Buyers & Collier County Growth Projections
NAR Article - The Worst is Over
Brian Brady - Great post - You can't miss
Toby Boyce - Economics vs Risk Management & The Worst is Over
Alameda Sun - Article
William Collins new to Active Rain - Opportunities Abound
Kristal Kraft's articles - Investors are Coming & We Are In
Renee Burrows - Undervalued vs Overvalued
Christopher Howard had an interesting post - Reading Tea Leaves

Let's see if we can generate some activity and get some sales happening before the end of the year... I have 48 of these buyers just sitting, not motivated and waiting & watching for the ideal opportunity. And they could be enjoying a brand new home! But is there really such a thing as an ideal opportunity? Yes - the one you missed!

Colleen Kulikowski is your Western New York Real Estate Expert focusing on Buffalo and Niagara Falls neighborhoods of Western New York. If you are on Twitter, please follow me... If you enjoyed this post by your Buffalo & Niagara Falls Home Sales Expert, make sure you subscribe to our RSS feed!

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Posted by Licensed Real Estate Salesperson Colleen Kulikowski on 11/27/2006 10:08 AM

Comments (33)

Originally posted at: Niagara Falls Real Estate & Homes : HELP!!! My Crystal Ball is Cloudy!

33 Comments on HELP!!! My Crystal Ball is Cloudy!

NOV

2006

Colleen -- glad to see things are running smoothly while I am gone... Can you take my Crystal Ball along with yours to the shop? Actually great idea to compile the articles to help support purchasing now.... See you on Saturday...

Colleen,

Holy mackrel. You`re non stop now...

"Price forces sale."

Carolyn -- Thanks! Although it is slow here, you are missed!

Scott -- thanks -- I have become much more focused and my writing has improved a lot since I took some advice from Barry Hurd..

Kristal -- too true... But how do I get buyers to make offers? Sellers here will take a lot lower (just check out the list/sale price differences on sold properties) they just won't reduce pricing to where it tickles the buyers interest!

There must be a crystal ball flu going around that is clouding everything up! I find it hard to think of things nyself. I just started looking for an article anywhere I've gone in a day. The market, a special service I just heard of, a great website, a new business, a park, clases coming up, a great deal somewhere. . . Whatever might be of interest to someone else ot sounds unique!

I don't believe there is such thing is an ideal opportunity in most things we do...I would equate it to the old addage that "you are never really ready to be a parent." It's one of those decisions in life that you make, when you may think that it is time. But nothing prepares you for the spit, the diapers and the potential colic. That' s how I think about buying a house. The stars may be aligned and you buy a house in a great market, and boom! All of a sudden they decide to build a prison across the street from you. Or maybe you buy a house in today's market, and it may be the best investment you ever make. Good post!

Cynthia -- true but I am looking for actual links to build the case for purchasing! But you do make an excellent point!

Melissa - so very true. I just wish I could get some people off the fence...

Colleen,

Great links attached to your"Help-my chrystal ball is cloudy"

The more research you do and the more people you talk to , the easier you can decide what part to invest in. Good luck keep us posted on what you decide upon.

Interesting articles. Thanks

Colleen:

For the record I can't even begin to imagine having 48 Lovely Buyers sitting on a Lovely fence...

TLW "The Lovely Wife"...I Would Be Chucking Them Off That Lovely Fence...ROAR!

Some have properties that they have to sell and can't buy until that is the case... I keep in touch with so many of them and hope that some day something I say will motivate them to purchase instead of waiting... Several want to purchase after season. I chucked one off the fence after weeks of fustration only to see that he purchased $1.2 Million condo recently... So how long is too long to work with them?

Colleen,

I would think that "your" market would always be a good market. People from all over the world would like to live there. If you have that many buyers sitting on the fence, they need to be looking elsewhere (more in their price range) Maybe you should set up a referral network with someone in a little less exclusive area.

I have to agree with Kristal though. It "always" comes down to price!

Maybe you should chuck them ALL off the fence and onto a stove. Focus on the few that are more motivated than the rest and light a fire under their, well, you know.... and put the rest on the "back burner" until they are "ready" - a slow simmer?

Thanks for sharing the links!

I thought my cyrstal ball was getting cloudy too - then I realized that it was a snow globe....................

48 buyers on the fence. Give 'em a shove. They will fall one way or the other. For those who go the wrong way, at least you will not waste any more time.

Karen -- we have a 5 year absorption rate in some segments here! It has been a tough 18 months and buyers are afraid! I need to help them through that fear. That there is hope...

Mariana - that is why we are putting Top Producer in effect and hopefully simmer those that I have been spending so much time on.

Marc -- so that is why there is a snowman in front of a home.. Here I thought it was a sign all along...

Anne - I am hoping that Top Producer will help better...

Hot new concept - forget FSBO - For Sale By Owner - and go for FCBO - "For Closed" By Owner - or should it be FCBL - For Closed By Lender..

Tony -- you are funny... Tell Suzanne I left her a voicemail about photos! She can call me and we can discuss!

Colleen, if you find some crystal balls that work, I will take two, one for each hand. One to tell me where the Borrowers are and the other to tell me where the rates are going.

Colleen...IN Lee County sellers have started before Collier county to readjust ( to lower!) their asking prices..that is why many expert believe that the absorption will take longer in Collier...we are not doing great but we are surviving.Because there are many great opportunities right now in FT Myers. So I would say to these buyers that they should look at their favorite 3 properties and make 3 offers one after the other until they get the best deal. They say we are closer or near the very bottom of the downswing in Lee...now sellers in Collier have to wake up. But then again Colleen I have a feeling you are doing better then 95% of the Realtors as you sound successful. I know Marco quite well ( I don't sell there though ;) and you have a lot to offer there: the sellers just have to wake up.

LLoyd

Colleen, I'm about to join George...I also need a crystal ball to know which is going to be "hot" area for investments...

Colleen - If you have 48 potential buyers sitting in neutral, you need to ask the question WHY? Why are they just sitting there? You say it is because of the market and waiting for the opportune time. You are the professional. You need to re-examine them and listen to their needs. Use the needs against them. You need to change their state of mind. "Sales are closed based on emotion and justified with intellect." Play to their emotions. You have the ability to make your local market hot with your 48 clients. Good luck... I hope that this helps make your ball a little clearer.

A good deal is what happens 5 years after you bought and your neighbor sells his home for $400,000 more then you paid for yours... But it never happens if you don't buy first..

NOV

2006

The best deals are always the one you didn't buy.

George - I will keep you in mind... But there really isn't a magic bullet -- just a lot of hard work!

Lloyd - Marco is coming out of it compared to the rest of Collier County, but still buyers don't want to do anything until they are assured they won't loose value.

Eli - research and hard work -- that is where you will find great investments!

Jason -- yes play to the emotional hence where I started with all of this post! I have extreamly logical folks that want to analyize their decision to death. So I figured that if I could compile a series of articles to help push them over the fence that would appeal to their emotional needs. What they need to to read it in print that things are better before they will budge....

Kaye -- true they have to buy!

Randy -- they will learn!

You have the location, so now you the pricing.

Teri - great talking with you! Thanks for all the support and great ideas!

NOV

2006

Great Stuff, Thanks!

NOV

2006

Brian Brady just did a great post -- go check t out....

Great talking with you this afternoon Colleen.

I have to agree with you on the buyers sitting and waiting. I'm hearing it from several agents in the area, we are getting run ragged by buyers that are looking at everything. The problem is that there is very little "risk" for them not to purchase a home. I have a young couple that is looking for a particular area in a particular price range. We had them close to making an offer on a house two weeks ago -- but then another house "fell into" their price range. So they've backed off and are now "looking" at houses $20k above their range and "expecting" them to fall to them. Will they, Possibly, but they have little reason to not wait and find out. The risk is really not there, right now.

I like the cooking analogy.

Put all 48 of these buyers onto the stove and let them start boiling in some hot water. The ones that are more done will start floating to the top, and hopefully you'll get a couple of deals done.

Colleen - Was reading the CopyBlogger (found him through Marketing Yourself blog on AR) he has an article that fits right in with the whole making them move towards action ...

"The Smart Way to Create a Sense of Urgency"

Renee -- thanks!

Toby -- great read thanks for the tip! I had a great phone conversation with Brian Brady on the topic and he has some great ideas and is joining the Risk Group...

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