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49 Comments on Pollyanna meets Chicken Little!
Melissa - Probably about as good as they do at predicting the market!
Phil - So true and a good thing!
Michael - It is all I know how to do!
Richie - And that’s the way it should be. Our job is to handle the transactions and make sure all turns out well not predict the future!
Lori - I have seen two new listings in the past few weeks that a client wanted me to preview and they were marked “contingent” within three days!
Bill - I am having a wonderful Mother’s Day . . .thank you!
Mike - Maybe if I advertise that I predict the market trends correctly 50% of the time no one will ask me anymore! lol
You're right that no one can correctly predict the future and we have to live NOW. We also should be aware that unemployment is still very high, there is some inflation in gas and food prices we need to watch and there's no doubt that the National Debt is the highest it's ever been and although economists don't agree on a solution, most of the ones I've been listening to say that if we don't correct the national debt issue soon, we're in for problems worse than the recent housing bubble bust. Live for today and plan for tomorrow.
Colleen - The problem I have with economists is that, unless you are an economist, it is difficult to determine if they are good at what they do!
Valerie, the market will tend to follow their jobs. Very few people can buy a house when they are collecting unemployment. In areas where there are jobs, but at less than prevailing wages, the purchase power will tend to be less, so the amount of purchase will be less, but the optimists will say that people are just buying smaller more efficient homes.
You are right. Agents help keep the market moving in the now. They really aren't in the business of making predictions. They help bring buyers and sellers together and help execute transactions.
Agents get paid when they sell real estate. They don't get paid when they tell buyers to wait a year or two until the market bottoms. They don't get paid when they tell sellers to wait a year or two because prices are going to increase. To an agent, it's always a good time to buy or sell because we don't get paid for anything else.
If you knew prices were going to drop 30% over the next two years and wouldn't recover for another ten years, what would you do? You'd probably find some more rosier predictions and ignore the negative predictions and probably just keep selling real estate. It''s what we do.
Valerie...Great post. Many clients do want our advice on where the market is going. Just as in all other areas of information where we are not experts or we are not legallly able to provide an answer, we can be the "source of the source".
We can provide resources which they may utilize to form their own opinions.
Just one question, why would your office let an area Managing Broker with a horrible negative attitude do a presentation?
In my opinion, the furthest point anyone can look into the future of real estate is 6 months. Any longer than that is just pure crystal ball gazing.
I absolutely agree. I don't try to predict the future. My job is to help buyers and sellers who need help now.
I like your attitude! Sometimes the best approach is to keep working and put the "statistics" at the back of our minds while focusing on what we CAN and WILL do.
Good for you. Nevertheless the one thing that is not an opinion or a prediction is MATH. If we currently have X amount of foreclosed homes plus x amount of defaults that are still coming to the market and combine that with an absorption rate of Y you know clearly for the national market that we are in it for another 5-8 years.
Now you can take the same formula and apply it to your local market, provided that you get absorption rates from your MLS, your receptionist or whoever does data collection in your office.
Math does not lie, math is not to be interpreted. 2+2 stays for, whether you are a cheerleader or a pessimist. And THAT your clients need to know to have the correct expectation.
Valerie, you are right that no one has a crystal ball between Pollyanna and Chicken Little. My take on the whole national housing market is many more Chicken Little areas than Polyanna and the Chicken Littles are still growing.
I wish I had a crystal ball but I don't. None of us has a clue which way it's going. I wish we did!
Cheryl - Busy should lead to better . . . don't you think? :)
Ed - In our area the lower priced homes seem to be in great demand, but we are seeing some increased movement in the mid & upper range too.
Tim - Good points! As long as we are closing transactions, we will just keep on going!
Howard/Susan - Do you have any especially good ones you like to use?
Jeanne - Maybe to squelch our Pollyanna optimism?! lol Actually, it was to teach us how to get sellers to list more realistically . . .I'm afraid the approach he suggested might make them run. Pretty depressing!
Bob - And even that might be a little guesswork?
Tammie - I wouldn't even know where to begin to predict this market is going!
Kate - Thanks! Kind of like the Little Engine That Could . . .I think I can, I think I can . . .lol
Annette - Math is great . . .I love math. Problem is I am not sure it takes into account the very local and very personal nature of real estate. And we never know when the government, the banks or some little green visitors will throw a wrench into the system!
Gary - If we get too many more Chicken Little areas the sky will definitely fall and ALL of our eggs will be crushed! Unfortunately, I think that might mean a revolution of some sort . . .not a cheery thought is it?
Erica - I am not sure I even want the crystal ball. Too much responsibility . . .I'd probably drop the darn thing! :)
I am totally a Pollyanna. I completely believe that attitude has a lot to do with it. Part of our economy recovering is people thinking it's recovering. And the housing market is part of that. Believe it's going up and maybe it will become a self-fullfilling prophesy.
Gretdchen
Gretdchen - I like you way of thinking!
Valerie,
Very well said, We have to deal with what the market is today.. it's all we really have.
Thanks, Judi! I just keep trying to think positive . . . works for me!