"The Mortgage Buddy" Mortgage Rate Outlook for the Week Beginning May 9th
Last week saw continued pressure downwards in the mortgage rate environment. The economic data points were dominated by the jobs report on Friday. We did see a nice increase in the number of jobs created in this great country, but the unemployment rate ticked back up because of more people re-entering the work force. These people are counted as unemployed and can skew the positive news. But it's a good sign when more people come into the job force, it usually means that they have a re-newed confidence that there are employment opportunities out there.
Mcdonald's proved to be the largest source of hiring for the month of April with over 60,000 new employees. We are seeing a gradual shit from governement jobs, and governement spending to growth in the private sector. This transition can sometimes be frustrating with lower GDP numbers in confusing unemployment numbers but this move is an essential aspect of economic recovery.
The Week Ahead:
Wed 1pm: The results of the 10yr treasury auction will be announced. Look for strong demand which should be great for keeping rates low.
Thursday and Friday are dominated by inflation indicators.
Thursday 830AM- The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods received by producers.
Friday 830AM- The Consumer Price Index; The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation.
This week's mortgage rates are going to be effected by CPI and PPI. We may see a slight tick up in rates if investors get nervous that these numbers could be higher that expected signaling inflation creeping into the market. If those numbers are tame I look for a stable to lower interest rate forecast. I think the treasury auction on Wed. will be met with strong demand and push rates lower. Friday 30yr rates were pricing around 4.25%-4.375% on a 30yr fixed. These are the lowest rates have been since early November, and just in time for the Spring and Summer market.