Special offer

Can Average Home Prices Be Rising While Average Values Are Dropping?

By
Real Estate Agent with Joe Manausa Real Estate 8508880888

If you like to stay up to date with home sales in Bull Run, then you’ll be happy to find this quick market report for Bull Run in Tallahassee. I like to periodically “check in” to see how the top selling neighborhoods in Tallahassee are doing, so today we’ll look at recent home sales in Bull Run and compare them with past sales activity.

Bull Run is one of a few Tallahassee neighborhoods that has seen a continuance of new homes being built. With banks helping builders liquidate their inventories of home sites (lots), the recent sales are weighted with new construction at lowered prices.

Existing home sellers are having a tough time competing with brand new homes that are being built on lots with a drastically lowered land basis. In the simplest sense, home owners in Bull Run need to understand that the land under their homes has fallen in value by about $50K to $80K. I would expect new construction to continue until lot inventories are exhausted, or until existing homes for sale in Bull Run drop their prices below a level at which builders can no longer compete.

Home Sales In Bull Run

This first real estate graph shows that the average home sales price has risen slightly since 2009. This might appear to be good news if we did not know about the new construction going on in Bull Run, but this next real estate graph shows the real picture on what is happening to the actual value of homes for sale in Bull Run.

Note: If you think my recent real estate graphs are easier to view, then “thanks” are owed to reader Charlie Sawyer who gave me some tips on better imaging. Thanks Charlie!

Bull Run Home Sales

The real estate graph above shows that home values in Bull Run have been falling since they hit their peak in 2007. The inverse results between average values dropping and average prices rising is simply due to the new construction of smaller homes in Bull Run. Builders are able to sell cheaper homes by keeping them smaller than what has been built in the past, and over time, we will see a change in the “average” type of home in Bull Run.

Much like the rest of the Tallahassee housing market, Bull Run is facing an inventory problem. We have too many homes for sale and not enough qualified homebuyers, so it will take quite a bit of time for all of the homes for sale in Bull Run to be sold. Finally, take a look at the “Year Built” column in the table of recent home sales below, and you will get a feel for how much new construction is impacting home sales right now in Bull Run.

Recent Home Sales In Bull Run

Posted by

Joe Wrote The Book On How To Sell A Home In The Digital Age

The digital marketing guide for bricks and mortar businesses

 

Joe Manausa Real Estate
1934 Dellwood Drive
Tallahassee, FL 32303
(850) 366-8917

Comments(16)

Mike Saunders
Retired - Athens, GA

Joe - very interesting and informative charts. I was wondering if you were going to make a case for it and you did.

May 19, 2011 03:15 AM
Ruthmarie Hicks
Keller Williams NY Realty - 120 Bloomingdale Road #101, White Plains NY 10605 - White Plains, NY

Hi Joe - Yep - this reminds me of 2006-2007.  The market was obviously softening up - but median prices were rising particularly in the condo market.  The reason?  Brand new construction in the luxury sector.  Right now we have the opposite problem.  The prices of these condos came crashing down but they are now selling.  Values in SOME sectors are inching up - but that is disguised by the colllapse in other areas.

May 19, 2011 04:17 AM
Michael J. Perry
KW Elite - Lancaster, PA
Lancaster, PA Relo Specialist

Great graphs and very engaging blog post ! Values are still dropping in our area too.

May 19, 2011 05:08 AM
Cory Barbee
San Diego, CA
Broker (760) 563-4022

Looks like the builders did their homework and found a niche to go after leaving everyone else in the dust...

May 19, 2011 05:32 AM
Vince McEveety
Gilleran Griffin Realty - Sherman Oaks, CA

provocative title

nice post

thanks for the writing of it

and thanks for some ideas

v

May 19, 2011 07:09 AM
Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Thanks Mike. Most people report depreciation/appreciation with average price movement ... not very wise.

May 19, 2011 07:18 AM
Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Thanks Ruthmarie, we saw the same thing in our condo market.

May 19, 2011 07:18 AM
Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Thanks Michael, this too shall pass ... :)

May 19, 2011 07:19 AM
Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Not really Cory. This is a bank's decision to fund the builder holding the lots with -$75K equity. They figure they'll lose less on the home sales than they would on the lot sales. Unfortunately for them (and all of us) they are invested in the entire market and this will cause them more long-term losses.

May 19, 2011 07:21 AM
Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Thank you Vince. I look forward to seeing your ideas in posts!

May 19, 2011 07:21 AM
Christine Donovan
Donovan Blatt Realty - Costa Mesa, CA
Broker/Attorney 714-319-9751 DRE01267479 - Costa M

Joe - This is a great in depth explanation of what is going on with the market in Bull Run.

May 19, 2011 03:20 PM
Stefan West
West Realty - Murrieta, CA
Temecula-Murrieta-Menifee CA Real Estate

Nice info and charting.  We are constantly between supply and demand issues in Temecula.  Right now there is a shortage of actionable houses for buyers.  There are plenty of short sales but homes that can actually go into escrow are getting thin and going with multiple offers.

May 19, 2011 03:53 PM
Lloyd Binen
Certified Realty Services - Saratoga, CA
Silicon Valley Realtor since 1976; 408-373-4411

Joe,

Good post.  Do you know that Yale economist Robert Shiller developed the Case-Shiller Index which is supposed to show "same house sales" over time?  The index moves independently of the average or median home price.

May 19, 2011 05:21 PM
Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Christine!

Jun 23, 2021 06:01 AM
Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Stefan!

Jun 23, 2021 06:01 AM
Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Lloyd!

Jun 23, 2021 06:01 AM