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Banks Hold 875,000 homes and prices will drop further.

By
Real Estate Agent with Gilleran Griffin Realty

Banks Hold 875,000 homes and prices will drop further.

Yes We Can... forget the speculation.  Housing prices are in for another jolt.  We've all known about the "shadow inventory" and the purported homes that have been foreclosed upon that the banks were "allegedly" not ready to release to prime time.

And why would they have to sell if they were being bailed out by taxpayer money?  Why would they have to own up to the negative asset they held in their portfolio as prices continued to drop - if they were getting assistance in the form of cash from Joe U.S.A., Uncle Sammie, you the taxpayer?

And now those chickens are coming home to roost.

Some giant brain has finally put two and tow together and cut through the bleeding red ink that is the NY Times and released the story.  

NEWSFLASH - More inventory means less sales and yes... lower prices.  Seems the elites on the east coast have finally remembered economics one OH MY one.  Supply and demand have coming home to a cozy Freidmanesque resting spot, like Quasimodo swinging down from a fraying rope after ringing a blaring clarion call bell.  

How's that for a mix of metaphors?  (I know I know... they're simile... but people have a grasp on the word "metaphor" and fewer... "simile"  - most think I misused and or misspelled "smile" )

I don't want to sound joyous in my "I told you so" moment.  I'm not.

More pain is more pain.  I've plenty of interest in real property.

The joy will be in those that have waited to buy and will continue to wait, saving dollars for the oft longed for day where they can look back at "THE" bottom of the pricing.

"They" will have glory in the purchasing at twenty cents on the dollar, carrying a minimum mortgage after having watched many of the yupsters using their ever inflating home values as a piggy bank to fund their two jet ski, twin BMW lives.

My real question is about the mindset that thought or perhaps still thinks that QE1 and QE2 were great ideas.  That we as a country could print money out of thin air and buy our own debt (yes you did read that correctly - if you know not of what I speak - ixney the ongbey) and somehow prevent a collapse of prices in housing and thus a collapse of the marvelous Ponzi scheme that has been fueling this country for thirty years.  

Our money is backed by a promise.

And the party is twinkling out as the dawn arrives.  The ashtrays are full, the champagne bottles are empty, the caviar has been left out all night.....

Prices will drop more and all the crud that is attached to the truth of that statement will come to pass.

If ya gotta sell... the good news is that inflation is coming!

Where the balance of the sweet spot on that deal is... is dependent on what the definition of "is" is... and will be the subject of another post.

What a note for a monday....

Videy the Boomtown Rats... tell me why... I don't like...

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Mark Mansfield
RE/MAX Ocean Properties - Morehead City, NC
Broker - NC Beaches , Water & Golf Course Homes

Vince, I couldn't agree more with most of what you had to say. However I can assure you we understand econmics real well on the East Coast. The people that America elects and sends to Washington that maybe a whole different story.

I sat in and listened to Lawrence Yun speak two weeks ago and he doesn't seem to think inflation is quite that big of a threat just yet. It is definitely a big concern, but not as big as the one you just wrote about along with unemployment. The other big factor is the price of oil and its high prices affect on our economy.

Without QE1 we were flirting with a Great Depression II, But QE2 is a political gamble to keep some people in office and definitely a big concern for our future. In order for inflation to really become a concern we need GDP growth to do a little better and for real estate to stabilize. As you noted earlier, we are far from that.

The two keys to our economic recovery are home values and jobs in my opinion, but I think you are absolutely right. Keep up the fight and lets do our part to deplete that inventory.

May 23, 2011 12:51 PM
Vince McEveety
Gilleran Griffin Realty - Sherman Oaks, CA

Hi Mark,

Forgive my east coast slam... not thought out as far as who may be reading this... it was more intended as a NY Times slam and to that end... I missed... sour grapes on my part...

Great comment... thanks.

May 23, 2011 01:18 PM
Mark Mansfield
RE/MAX Ocean Properties - Morehead City, NC
Broker - NC Beaches , Water & Golf Course Homes

Gotcha, no offense taken. Definitely feel your frustration and feel like Washington belt way boys pander to winning votes versus fixing problems.

May 23, 2011 04:29 PM