Pin The Tail On The Bottom Of The Market

I have been working with several would be home buyers here in Calabasas.  All of them feel that they should wait until the housing market is at the bottom before they buy a home.  I'd like to share my explanation of "the bottom of the market" and how it will effect your buying decision.

This is a graph that represents the Calabasas housing market.  The left side of the V represents the market going down, the right side represents the market going up, and of course the bottom of the V represents the bottom of the housing market.

 

If  I asked you to plot on this      

graph where you thought the housing

market was right now ...

  

  

... would you pick this spot or something close?

So you think that the market is going towards the bottom.  If the market isn't at the bottom yet, how will you know when it does hit the bottom?

How will you know when the housing market hits the bottom?

From experience I can tell you that you won't know that the housing market has hit the bottom until prices start to go back up.  It will be difficult to be sure that the market has hit bottom for a few months.  Its not a sudden shift, it is a slower more gradual shift.  You'll be able to tell that the market has turned when prices reach this point (green arrow).

What is the difference in housing prices between the red arrow and the green arrow?

Not much... but there is another difference and it is major.

If you buy a home on the left side of the graph, it is considered a buyers market.  You would be more likely to get concessions from a seller including price reductions, repairs, or maybe even personal property. 

If you wait until the market turns and you buy on the upswing, you and every other buyer that has been waiting for the market to hit bottom will be bidding on the same house.

There really is no better time to buy a house than now for a few reasons:

1. There is a wonderful selection of homes to choose from right now.
2. Sellers are very willing to negotiate on price, terms and perks.
3. Interest rates are still at a historical low.

I am suggesting to each and every would be Calabasas buyer to take a good look at the above examples and decide for themselves what percentage the prices will have to drop before they think housing prices have hit bottom and offer that price.  For example, if you think that prices will go down another 5%, then submit an offer at 5% below the asking price.

For more information on how to determine when is a good time to purchase a home in Calabasas or a detailed market analysis on the different Calabasas neighborhood sales, please call me at (818) 652-2937.  I track Calabasas sales, monthly, and weekly by neighborhoods and have daily information on closings so that you can stay on top of our changing market.