What's in the statistics - those numbers that we rely on - or often hide behind? For the year through end September 2007 the raw statistics show an interesting movement over the last three years.
Year       Average Sale Price     % Change vs prior Year    Units Sold     % Change vs Prior Year      Av. DOM
2005            $1,305,033                                                      118                                                         141
2006            $1,859,059                   up 42.5%                    143                 up 17.5%                        553
2007            $1,591,306                down 14.4%                  176                  up 23.1%                       334
On the surface - several interesting things...
  1) Number of units sold has increased sharply over the last couple of years;
  2) Average prices seem to have declined this year vs 2006.
  3) Average days on market for 2006 and 2007 seem extraordinarily long!

Well it's those statistics!!  2006 and 2007 are affected significantly by the completion of several new condo developments. In 2006, Wailea Beach Villas (immediately oceanside of the Shops at Wailea) sold 67 units at an average price of $2,279,765. And because construction took a long time, the Average Days on Market (DOM) was 635! Wailea Beach Villas data significantly impacted the 2006 analysis.

So what about 2007? There were several more new developments. Kai Malu, Kanani Wailea, Ho'olei (coming on stream), Wailea Town Center, and more Wailea Beach Villas sales accounted for 113 sales units. At an average price of $1,712,667 and 433 average days on market, the new developments materially affected the 2007 gross figures.

If we remove the new developments from the analysis and look only at sales in the established condo complexes we see the following...
Year       Average Sale Price     % Change vs prior Year    Units Sold     % Change vs Prior Year      Av. DOM
2005            $1,305,033                                                       118                                                     141
2006            $1,489,847                   up 14.2%                    76              down 35.6%                       160
2007            $1,373,627                down 7.8%                  63                down 17.1%                       155
  1) Sales are declining steadily - probably in part due to the introduction of new complexes offering greater choice to buyers;
  2) Average prices are down over 7% in 2007;
  3) Average days on market are little changed over the years.
By the way... the number of withdrawn listings has risen steadily over the last three years - even for the established condos. And, as you might expect, those at higher average prices are being withdrawn this year as the prospect of a sale recedes! Good news is that there is a great selection of condos available for purchase and those that are priced well are selling.

Interesting what happens with statistics in a relatively small market like Wailea! If you want more information about specific condos - or up-coming developments - give me a call or email me. Check out information yourself with a search at www.HomeBuyersMaui.com

* Statistics taken from an analysis of the MLS for Jan-Sep of 2005, 2006 and 2007.