St George Utah Real Estate Market Absorption and Statistics

Here is a St. George Utah Real Estate market snap shot illustrating market absorption for residential property in St. George for May 2011 and a year to date analysis as well.
 

Our St. George market is changing.  While it's accurate to state that we have improved, noting that inventory is down and sales are up, it's to soon to determine if we have truly hit bottom and we are now in an upward trend, or if we are simply having a few great months fueled by low interest rates and rock bottom pricing.

May statistics showed (St. George Residential) a total of 1206 active, of which 239 were new listings, 142 sold listings, and 187 went pending.  Just to focus on the last two numbers, it's interesting to point out that a total of 329 homes sold/went pending and only 239 homes are new listings. 

For the same time last year (May 2010) there was a total of 1385 active, of which 216 were new listings, 145 sold listings, and 115 went pending.

For the Percentage Junkies, here's your fix: 

2011:  A total of 1206 active and 329 homes sold/went pending= 27% homes sold (closed or got an offer)
2010:  A total of 1385 active and 260 home sold/went pending= 18% homes sold (closed or got an offer)

Again, a nice illustration of a market trending in an upward pattern.  Here's where things get ugly for the sellers:

May 2009  MEDIAN SALE price:  $208,000
May 2010 MEDIAN SALE price:  $169,000
May 2011 MEDIAN SALE price:  $150,000

I've been noting an average yearly decline of about 12-15% each year, this demonstrates a similar pattern.

What's the prediction for the St George Real Estate Market?

So here is my conclusion and opinion:  I can see that we are really burning through our inventory at a fast pace.  While home prices continue to decline, the "pick of the litter" homes are few and far between.  It's difficult to find what most buyers want:  a larger home, newer, $250,000 or less, and not in need of major repair.  When these types of homes come on the market at a great price--there are multiple offers sometimes within HOURS.  So buyers are forced to pick though what's left, and the only way they are willing to take it, is when it comes with a nice price tag (adding to the decline).  So long as we continue to burn though this inventory, supply and demand will kick in.  What could be lurking in the shadows however, may be a surplus of "shadow inventory" the banks have not yet released on the market (or have not yet foreclosed on).   I stand by what I've been saying for months:  so long as you plan to buy and STAY for a few years, you'll probably make out just fine.  If you think you may sell in the short term, you may in fact be selling "short".