The Pelican Point Golf Community is currently the largest subdivision in Ascension Parish. The last filing for the subdivision is currently being built. Pelican Point still ranks among the most active subdivisions for new home sales in the parish. The bad news for sellers is that there is currently more inventory available than demand can consume within a reasonable period of time creating a buyer's market.
The following analysis was developed from raw data gathered from the Greater Baton Rouge MLS database. For the purposes of this analysis only detached single family dwellings were included although a similar analysis is available for townhomes. The raw data was for sales from January 2002 through September 2007 which were reported as of 10/5/07. The current inventory reported was as of 10/5/07.
The first chart shows the average selling price for new and resale homes while the second looks at the average selling price per square foot of living area. 
Although the average selling price for new homes has continued to climb, the average selling price for resale homes has dropped off from 2006 but is still ahead of 2005 figures. Similarly, new construction has sold for more per square foot of living area than in previous years but has leveled off for homes in the resale market.
The next chart looks at the monthly absorption rates for new and resale homes in various price ranges.
These charts illustrate that new home consumption for 2007 has been significantly behind that of previous years. The absorption rate is 30% below what it was in 2006. There is currently over a 12 month supply of new construction in the subdivision. With respect to the resale market the problem areas are in homes priced over $350K where there is more supply than demand. Overall, the resale market has almost a 10 month supply of inventory. The under $350K supply of homes is at a more reasonable level of about six months.
If one examines the price per square foot twenty four of the newly constructed homes are prices over $140/sq.ft. where there is a minimum of 27 months supply.
In the resale market, there is adequate supply to meet the demand in the $120-140/sq.ft. price range but significant consumer resistance once the price goes over $140/sq.ft. The lack of velocity in the under $120/sq.ft. range may have more to do with location and style of home than the price.
One final comment on the reduced demand is that the primary route to the subdivision has been closed off during the entire peak selling season due to a road and bridge construction project. Once the route opens up again we hope that the sales rate will increase. Time will tell.
Visit me at www.PelicanPointHomes.net for information on Pelican Point Real Estate.
Visit me at www.DonAndAlishaStern.com for Ascension Parish Real Estate information and Ascension Parish Homes for Sale.
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