Mortgage Interest Rate Update 6-23-2011 + Projected Trends

Introducing an easy-to-follow inside look at mortgage rate activity, featuring charts, rate sheets, market commentary, and even video recordings all in one daily article! All Real Estate Professionals & Consumers are advised to stay informed about interest rates and learn THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES. Whether you're a newbee, market analyst (or somewhere in between), keep yourself informed of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why).

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Thursday 6-23-2011 and will help you understand todays best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Wednesday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing (and will typically warrant a pricing adjustment by most Lenders). Wednesday's IMPROVEMENT resulted in a change of 6 basis points (bps).

The following chart shows the market activity for today (hint: upward activity is good, downward activity is bad):

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Market Commentary

Analyst #1 (Neil Trenerry):

FNMA 30-Yr 4.0%

Previous close 100.875

Opened Up 0.34bp @ 101.219

Key Economic Data:

EUR / USD  1.4175  Down  0.01182
USD / JPY  80.6445  Up  0.13520
GBP / USD  1.5963  Down  0.0108

Oil   91.07   Down   4.34

Gold   1,5526.00   Down  27.40

Key Economic News:
Initial and continuing unemployment weaker than expected.

Key Numbers:
Initial claims +9k to 429k in week ended June 18 vs. median forecast 415k.
Continuing claims -1k to 3.697 million in week ended June 11 vs. median forecast 3.67 million.

Main Points:
Initial claims rise more than expected by 9k to 429k in the week ended June 18. (Claims in the previous week were revised up by 6k to 420k.) Continuing claims are also weaker than expected, down only 1k from an upwardly revised level to 3.697m in the week ended June 11. Extended benefits (which are not seasonally adjusted) rise by around 70k in the week ended June 4.

9:45: Bloomberg consumer confidence indicator. formerly the Washington Post/ABC index, this weekly barometer of consumer confidence is roughly in the middle (-44) of the -40 to -50 range it's been in all year.

10:00 New home sales, a small decline?  We expect a 4% drop in May new home sales, in line with the consensus forecast--though as always we caution this can be a volatile indicator, and our forecasted change this month is equivalent to only about one thousand home sales in the entire country (not annualized).  This would put May sales at a 310,000 annual rate, just over their average for the past year.

19:00: Fed's Evans opens conference on state fiscal issues.  Chicago Fed President Evans will give welcoming remarks at a conference at the bank on state fiscal issues; this is not expected to include remarks on the economy or monetary policy.

Advice:

With weaker unemployment numbers. I would expect the market to continue to rally thru the day.

My position on MBS stays neutral

Analyst #2 (Dan Rawitch):

Here is the link to our daily UPdate 
http://ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html

Certainly have a bullish trend continuing since the FOMC minutes and testimony.  Add the that an increase jobless claims, housing without a heart beat and the ending of the fed stimulas, and you get the picture of an economy in trouble.  Thus, increasing the need for abnormally low interest rates.

Remember the charts I showed you all back in the 30's and 40's last year?  I still believe we have a similar cycle in store for us.  That's ok...there is tons of money to made in this type of enviroment!!! You know that!  

GDP tomorrow will help determine whether we blow through the resistance of 101.50 or test the bottom of the range.

Trusted Mortgage Industry Resource

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon. As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) and Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.jasonegordon.com for more information.

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