Mortgage Rates were expected to see another strong rally to lower but after better than expected Durable Orders numbers and slightly better than estimate GDP bonds likely to be stuck close to current levels today.
Good morning AR members and readers.
Here are the actual results of those two items
- GDP - Third Estimate: Actual 1.9% , prior 1.8% (consensus 1.8%)
- GDP Deflator - Third Estimate: Actual 2.0%, prior 1.9% (consensus 1.9%)
- Durable Orders: Actual 1.9%, prior -3.6% (consensus 1.5%)
- Durable Orders- ex Transportation: Actual 1.6%, prior 1.5% (consensus 0.7%)
What does this mean for rates?
The consensus opinion was that with "at expectations" or worse we would see a large spike to lower rates. Since this did not happen, and it being a Friday, I think we trade today at current levels and likely see the FNMA 4.0 range between 101.1 - 101.25.
Currently the FNMA 4.0 is at 101.219 after an open -12bps loss then it added a +9bps since.
The 10Y is also flat currently sitting at close yesterday of 2.90%.
I still believe that rates will ultimately lower as the numbers for GDP were only .1% above expected and the Durable Orders .4%. Anything is better than nothing but when its an economy struggling to rebound it will need a lot more than those improvements to make any substantive change to recovery.
Make it a great day
Comments(0)