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The Six Stages of the Long-Term Real Estate Play

I talk a lot about trends in housing. One of the ways to make money in any real estate market is to buy correctly. How can you spot the next Aspen or Scottsdale? Here are the six stages to watch:

marana 1- If looking for the next hot ex-urb, look for a small town that is surrounded by natural beauty. An old mining town in Southeastern Arizona, a former mill town on the river in Massachusetts, or an unnoticed beach town on the Gulf of Mexico. This is the period where the real cowboys invest. Their plan is to buy land and promote it. There is a bar and gas station in town. There is no chamber of commerce. Your friends will refer to the town as "bucolic".

2- Look for the artists and tradespeople. If you see galleries and studios replacing tattoo parlors you have a good chance of making a killing in this market. Artists like physical beauty and a sense of community. More importantly, budding artisans are VERY frugal with the dollar. While I can't prove it with data, I just know these left-brained thinkers have a "sixth sense" about seeing the big picture. The chamber of commerce is made up of the artists and the failing gas station owner, meeting at Joe's Tap Room once a month. Your friends will refer to the town as "funky" at this point.

3- Independent coffee houses and resale shops follow the artists and it benefits everyone. Customers need a quaint place to eat and drink while shopping so these little businesses come in. They take over the abandoned gas station and call their shops names like "The Shell House" or "X-ed ON". There is still room for upside here. The Chamber of Commerce is hosted by the newly converted bed and breakfast in town and the mayor and police chief have joined. Your friends will call this village "quaint".

READ THE FINAL THREE STAGES AT www.MortgageRatesReport.com

Posted by Brian Brady- America's VA Home Loan Broker on 12/01/2006 08:27 PM

Comments (42)

realtor, mortgage, san diego real estate

Originally posted at: America's #1 Mortgage Broker: The Six Stages of the Long-Term Real Estate Play

42 Comments on The Six Stages of the Long-Term Real Estate Play

DEC

2006

Bingo!

That's not only when you sell -it's when you run screaming!

And start all over.......

Thanks for the chuckle! But how true it is... Taking that into account -- Port of the Islands and Everglades City -- head there and fast....

Hey Colleen!

Everglades City is the first town north of the glades off of Tamiani Trail . It's surrounded by Everglades Nat'l Park. The homes look pricey, though.

What about Chokoloskee Island?

Marc: and then you start all over again. true

I think that I am pretty much stuck at #1 right now... the town two towns over is probably about stage 3, but holding firm due to the slow in the market. We are thinking about taking advantage of the slowness while we still can. Thanks for the insight on the stages...

DEC

2006

What town is in stage three, Jason? Is it Eustis?

Excellent post Brian- you have captured the element of a town's fetal development into adult hood- well done! You have earned a free ticket to the "realtors" blog room!

Great blueprint, Brian. Finding towns at the different stages should make good blogging material for us.

Brian, Yes... it is Eustis. Are you familiar with it?

Jason: No. I just looked it up a map on the internet (near Altoona) and it was there. It looks like it could be a nice area (on the lake and all). What's a home sell for there?

Sharon: I am so interested in your blogs about these. I know you promote various int'l developments and am curious about the next "Cayman Islands". I'll keep you posted on the next "Cabo"

Out here on Long Island,NY, I had noticed the stages since moving her in 1984. When I notice the growth in certain sections of Long Island, I tell my wife

"It's deja vu all over again"

Isn't it true? Quite a few people move to a place because it's quiet and then tell their friends all about it, soon it's not quiet anymore and the original ones are out the door, or gazing out the door anyway, talking about the cows that used to be there.

Sounds like Buckeye is somewhere in Stage 4 or 5 - but still a long way to go before it runs out of land to build on.

Correct, Suzanne. Buckeye's a 4-5. But Tonopah's a 1-2. It's like Buckeye was 10 years ago

Funny and entertaining. But, we see it all the time. Thanks!

I just did a refi for someone who has a house on the lake. The appraisal came in around $700,000. If the house was on the other side of the lake it would have been worth more. If you are in town proper, a basic home would run $250-350k. Still reasonably low in price compared to some areas. Rural parts with acreage (5-10 acres) are closer to $500+.

Brian, great article. Its definitely more than just a post. A place like you describe is exactly where I want to buy next and hold until those 'rocking chair days' roll around.

Branson? May be too country.

Like the beach..Imperial Beach, CA. The surfers all grew up and run the city and are very anti-development. they just got elected out

You nailed it. This is classic.

Great job.

In Hawaii stage one is sugar cane fields and pineapple plantations. Most of them are in stages 5 or 6.

Your posts are always so well thought out and make so much sense!

I look forward to reading you insight every day! Thank you!

Brian.... I agree with Renee..... very interesting and a good way to look at certain areas. This is something that I can pass onto my investors also. thanks

Nice framework! On AR, we should compile a list of potential 1's by region?

My man Brian, you should write a book! Seriously.

#2 and #4 - can't they sometimes be combined? Or maybe #4 just winds up retaining more of #2 than other areas. Cleveland may seem funkier than some areas even after #4 and #5 though because of all the industry; anyway, when that Rainmaking starts to kick in I can see cool road trips for investment investigation; a win win.

DEC

2006

Kaushik: Wow, that's a great idea. I think I'll start one off later for a region.

Thanks, Jeff and Renee.

Carole: I haven't been to Cleveleand since 1983, the alleged low point for Cleveland. I loved it then; Municipal Stadium and all. One has to think there is an old mfg town on the lake ready to turn

Very clever Brain. especially #6. You do have a way with words.

DEC

2006

Brian - what an awesome post! Congratulations on winning the top spot on the Carnival of Real Estate... I can see why. I don't think many people truly know what to look for to spot the next Aspen or Scottsdale. BTW, I love your sense of humor... bucolic, funky, quaint, charming, growing... home. So true!

Y4wh Brian, congratulations on your win in the Carnival!!

Congratulations on the win Brian - This was a great article.

Brian, Congrats on the Carnival win. It was a fun read.

Brian Brady, this truly was a great article and congratulations on a well deserved win!

Nice...now if the town I grew up in could only get to stage 2....

Brian: A big bunch of red balloons for you! Congratulations on a well-earned and well- written win.

I immediately thought of Oceanside, CA. Though I never knew it in its bucolic days, I do recall the tattoo parlors, nudie clubs, barrios and bait shops. The town is now peppered with cafes, coffee bistros, million dollar row houses, antique shops and the best telescope store in San Diego.

Major money was made by shrewd and gutsy real estate investors.

Thanks for the comments and congratulations.

Roberta: O-side is a perfect example! Someone stood on Oceanside Blvd and said, "This is one block from the beach where some of the best surfing in SoCal lies? I'm buying some real estate and a broom and...CLEANING UP!"

Great post! And very much worthy of winning this week's CORE!

Brian...fantastic article...I moved to Greensboro, NC about 8 years ago and witnessed much of the same trends you mention here...I love the 'ex-urb' play! Very insightful.

Ray Kroc (McDonalds) used to ask MBA graduates what business he was 'in'...they often looked at him in obvious bewilderment...and most answered as you would expect, 'Hamburgers', 'Food Service' 'Customer Service', yada yada, yada...at some point he would correct them and say wrong, Real Estate...think about it, McDonalds owns some of the most valuable real estate in every town.

Again, great post....got me a thinkin :)

Outstanding post! Congratulations on the win!! Whoooo hoooooo!!!

So Brian, where do you think are the current State 1 & Stage 2 places to look at for long term investments?

DEC

2006

Ashay,

You should talk to Geno Petro. He's agood real estate broker in your neighborhood. He has a good grasp on budding markets.. Or give me a call at 858-699-4590