The real estate market for homes in North Central Phoenix is largely unchanged. We did see an increase of 4% for home sales over May (336 vs. 323), but the number of homes for sale was down by 21% (1606 vs. 2041). Find the numbers behind this story at http://jrphx.com/Reports/June2011SalesSummary.pdf.
The apparent good news is that we have only 4.8 months of inventory in North Central Phoenix. That should indicate a seller’s market, but clearly it is not a seller’s market – why not?
If we look at the city of Phoenix we see a total inventory on the MLS, as of June 30th, was 6661 homes (ranging from apartment style condos to single family homes). Of those 1240 (19%) were lender or government (HUD) owned. This 19% of the homes on the MLS represented 39% of homes sold in North Central Phoenix.
According to RealtyTrac as of June 30th there were 8864 lender or government owned homes in Phoenix. If this additional 7624 homes (the infamous shadow inventory) were added to the MLS the total inventory in Phoenix would more than double! Similarly that would more than double the months of inventory, so in truth we clearly have a buyer’s market and will continue to have one until this inventory is cleared out. At this point the shadow inventory looks like it is growing rather than shrinking.
A report on North Central Phoenix sales in June 2011 can be found at http://jrphx.com/Reports/June2011.pdf. That report shows that sales are up a bit as are prices. This is a reversal of the previous month over month results, but is too early to indicate a trend. More likely it represents a general stabilization of the market. It appears that the inventory held back by lenders is having the stabilizing effect they want to keep their losses to a minimum.
Your comments and questions are welcome
Joe Rinde – Keller Williams Realty Biltmore-Partners
Joe@Rinde.org (602) 334-6790
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