Monday Morning Forecast - More Volatility this Week!

Get ready for another busy week... and possible volatility. This week's inflation reports and upcoming auctions will determine if the rally continues.

• The week starts with the Balance of Trade report on Tuesday and the release of the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday.
• The big news hits toward the end of the week, when inflation will be in the spotlight. The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Thursday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due on Friday. If the inflation readings are hot, the rally inspired by last week’s Jobs Report could be short lived. I will monitor this issue closely to see how it may impact home loans. 
• Retail sales will also be released on Thursday. This is the most timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns.
• Thursday we’ll also see the weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims Report. After last week’s mixed employment reports, the markets will be watching this as closely as ever.
• We’ll see a triple dose of manufacturing news this week. The Empire State Index, Capacity Utilization, and Industrial Production are all on tap Friday.
• Finally, the Consumer Sentiment Index is due out on Friday. This index is important because the level of consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy

In addition to those reports, Bonds and home loan rates may be impacted by the Treasury Auctions this week. Remember, the Fed buying (known as the second round of Quantitative Easing or QE2) is over - so this week’s auctions will be interesting and may stir up the markets.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates experienced a volatile week but finished strong after disappointing employment news pressured Stocks. I’ll be watching closely to see if the slower economic recovery continues... and how this week’s news impacts home loan rates.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0%% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jul 08, 2011)

(Photographs courtesy of FreeDigitalPhotos.net)