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Treasuries Stabilizing even as Debt Ceiling Approaches... interesting

By
Mortgage and Lending with US Mortgages - David Shamansky NMLS#392126

Treasuries stabilizing even as debt ceiling approaches... interesting.

Good morning AR readers and members and as I wrote on Monday has held true with average of 30-50bps swings up and down each day today brought us a gap up open of +22bps to reverse some of yesterdays losses, that reversed that previous days gains.

So today we are now 4 days closer to the debt ceiling D-Day of Monday 8/2/11 and treasuries are actually up a bit the 10Y is currently below 3.0% on its yield and the FNMA bond is almost a 1/4 higher in its pricing.

Here is today's headline news that is helping drive the markets...

Initial Claims: Actual 398K, prior 418K (consensus 415K)

Continuing Claims: Actual 3703K, prior 3698K (consensus 3688K)

Pending Home Sales: Actual +2.4%, prior 8.2% (consensus -3.0%)

So one would be led to believe that with continuing claims basically flat and initial claims being down 20k that we should see stocks rally a bit and bonds suffer but its the opposite right now. I have to assume there must be some insight that the feds will absolutely not default on our debts and that an agreement to increase and coupled with a way to start bringing our sky high debt down must be close to completion.

Only time will tell on this but I ask for you input. Do you agree with me that the indicators of this week show a high probability of Debt Increase packaged with real Debt Reduction is near completion or do you think we will see politics of old and a party line stand off? I am interested in hearing all comments.

Have a great day and be positive!

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Posted by

araward

Colorado 1st Time buyers, if you are ready to stop renting, get the many benefits from home ownership, or maybe your a current homeowner looking to move up or maybe looking into what it takes to become an investor in this incredible market, that WILL create millionaires, and you are looking for a strategy, answers and direction, please feel free to call or email me. My 22yrs in mortgage lending and 30+ years in finance gives me an in depth knowledge, critical to helping others and making their dreams go from dream to reality!

David Shamansky
"Positive reinforcer, promoter, success coach, entrepreneur, team builder, wealth builder, blessed individual, business leader and professional lender"

US Mortgages
6855 S Havana St Ste 520
Centennial CO 80112
720-524-8020
NMLS#392126
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Comments (1)

Dan Hopper
Dan Hopper - Gold Way RE - Westminster, CO
Colorado Broker / Referral Services

HI David.... thanks for the stats.  To answer your question, I would have to give it a 60% probability of seeing an agreement made, and 40% of a stand-off.  Let's face it... neither party side wants to be the blame for a shut down and credit rating blemish.  YET, we have some new faces in Congress that is beyond the old days of "compromise" and NOT fixing the problem, other than a band-aid fix.  With that being said... I could agree with you on 60% probablility. 

Jul 28, 2011 04:56 AM