The relative supply of homes is exactly the same today as it was at this time last year, even though the real supply of homes continues to decline. The falling supply of homes has unfortunately been matched by falling demand, creating a situation where the months of supply continues to be above 12 months.
The problem in the market has many fronts, but the largest problem is not what many have been writing about in the large US newspapers.
Most are blaming a tightened money supply and tougher lending standards, but that is only adding fuel to the fire of the real problem in the housing market. When we look back at the tax credit, all the government stimulus did was motivate “future” first time homebuyers to enter the market to receive $8,000 towards the purchase of a home.
These “future” first time homebuyers of yesterday are the “present” first time homebuyers of today. That means our current market must rely on current homeowners to account for an even higher percentage of the home sales in the “present.”
This is the real problem with housing. Sellers have no equity and many are upside down in their homes, unable to first make the sale that will let them be buyers.
Our current buyers have no ability to sell first, so we sit and wait for the growth to move the market. Pay close attention to population growth, new household formations, and JOBS! These are the fuel for the future of our housing market.
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