Real Estate Blog - FAIRFAX COUNTY, VIRGINIA MARKET REPORT

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FAIRFAX COUNTY, VIRGINIA MARKET REPORT - September 2005, 2006, 2007

DON'T TAKE MY WORD FOR IT. NUMBERS DON'T LIE.

Below are the stats reported by the MLS for a county in my market area, Fairfax County, Virginia. I selected the Fairfax County real estate market because it is one of the areas local agents use to show that the market in Fairfax County is "not so bad". Well, it sort of depends on what you are looking for in a home purchase or home sale. As the volumn of home sales continues to decrease, one could come to the conclusion that the "adjustment" to prices in Fairfax is yet to come.

The sold prices have held steady from 2005 through 2007: $547,002 to $514,124 to $526,732. Not so bad. However, if one looks at volume of units sold, the story is completely different.

Total units sold from 2005, 2006, to 2007 are:

2005 - 1,828 units
2006 - 1,123 units
2007 - 729 units

It appears that, while prices are holding relatively stable, the numbers of units sold in September 2007 is only 40% of that in 2005.

Another interesting statistic is the percentage of average list to average sold in 2005 to 2006 to 2007. The percentage has fallen from:

2005 - 98%
2006 - 93.81%
2007 - 92.74%

It would appear that, while prices are remaining relatively stable, negotiation is in order.

                                             2007             2006          % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 383,987,268 $ 577,361,622 -33.49 %
Average Sold Price: $ 526,732 $ 514,124 +2.45 %
Median Sold Price: $ 435,000 $ 445,000 -2.25 %
Total Units Sold:   729 1,123 -35.08 %
Average Days on Market: 89 77 15.58 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 567,996 $ 548,065 3.64 %
Avg Sale Price as a percentage of Avg List Price: 92.74 % 93.81 %

                                              2006              2005        % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 577,361,622 $ 999,919,054   -42.26 %
Average Sold Price: $ 514,124 $ 547,002 -6.01 %
Median Sold Price: $ 445,000 $ 485,000 -8.25 %
Total Units Sold:   1,123 1,828 -38.57 %
Average Days on Market: 77 26 196.15 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 548,065 $ 558,142 -1.81 %
Avg Sale Price as a percentage of Avg List Price: 93.81 % 98.00 %

Map of Fairfax County Virginia

Courtesy: Lenn Harley, Broker, Homefinders.com, 800-711-7988

fairfax county real estate, fairfax county homes

Posted by Lenn Harley, Real Estate Broker, Maryland & Virginia on 10/22/2007 05:05 PM

Comments (6)

fairfax county real estate, fairfax county homes

6 Comments on FAIRFAX COUNTY, VIRGINIA MARKET REPORT - September 2005, 2006, 2007

OCT

2007

Lenn that's interesting that the sold prices in your area are holding steady. The volume is way down. I guess Sellers need to come down about 10% based on the list/sold ratio in order for inventory to move quicker. Is inventory way up as well?

Inventory up?

Every other *&^%$%# house is for sale. Many don't have signs. It became embarrassing.

We don't need to come down 10%. We need to come down 40%.

That would take us back to 2004 prices. Then regular folks could buy a home and not just the wealthy.

It's a mess.

OCT

2007

Interesting that you had a price fall-off from 2005-2006. That trend needed to continue into 2007 - instead you see prices adjusting upward. Some of the initial decline in volume could be attributed to the fact that investors were bailing out in 2006. But when the decline continues into this year at that rate - affordability is the issue. What do you base the need for a 40% decrease on? Why would 40% be the tipping point for buyers to come back in? Just curious as to the reasoning on the numbers.

It's interesting because in Westchester certain PARTS of the county have high inventory and other parts actually have low inventory. In lower Westchester in the more desirable areas, people are still buying and paying a hefty price - but homeowners aren't putting them on the market as readily - thus the low inventory. Where access to NYC is more difficult - EVERYTHING is on the market...and not much is selling. You have a similar situation. Do you see difference in areas close in to D.C.? You probably have a lot of foreign capital willing to put money into prime areas - I think that has a lot to do with the strength in NYC - and lower Westchester generally. Currency issues (the tanking dollar) make some of this desired real estate "cheap" for them...

Ruthmarie. I am looking for a 40% decline to get home prices down to a price where the average income buyer in the area can qualify to buy. It takes about $120,000 to qualify for the avarage priced home in my area. But, the average incomes are about $90,000. Either incomes are going to go up dramatically, which they are not, or prices have to come down.

We have a lot of foreigh money in Fairfax County in Virginia and in Montgomery County in Maryland. These are markets traditionally favored by foreigh nationals, immegrants and folks with money. Proximity to DC and highly ranked public schools drive prices there.

In our area it just seems like willy nilly the middle class have been forced out of the area. Irregardless of affordability factors - prices don't come down and the middle class is forced into longer and longer commutes. After several years, I finally realized that if there are enough well-heeled types to buy up property - that the prices would remain high no matter what the median income was. Sure enough - median income is up substantially - not because of salary increases - but because the middle class sold out to the wealthy. Meanwhile, the middle class has moved ever further north and west for affordable housing.

Do you think that the average price increase that you see is due to the condition of the homes that actually sell? I think the price increase that we have here might not be "real." What I mean by that is that only the move-in ready homes are MOVING...leaving the fixers languishing. So, if you compare apples to apples - we might be having an all-around price drop. Hard to quantify on a large scale, but thats what I seen in individual neighborhoods. We might be having a small price drop.

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