One of the most common questions we are asked is…what are our 2012 housing predictions.
Your best way at predicting the future is looking at the present. Specifically, what is happening with housing now.
Lets review the facts:
* Foreclosures made up roughly one-third of all home sales this spring... six times the percentage of foreclosures in a healthy housing market.
* Foreclosure sales accounted for 31 percent of the market in the April-June quarter, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. This number is artifically lower that it would of otherwise been due to the robo-signer, foreclosure fraud problems that bogged down the process. Once that is complete, foreclosures will likely surge later this year.
* Foreclosure sales peaked in 2009 ago at 37.4 percent. In the second quarter of 2011, they declined from 36 %. Its important to understand that the number of foreclosure sales occurring isn’t due to an overall decrease in distressed property. Fewer foreclosure sales nationally is a direct result of the before mentioned foreclosure fraud, robo-signing issues.
* In all, 265,087 homes in some stage of foreclosure or owned by banks were sold in the second quarter, down 11 percent from the same period a year ago. Sales of all other types of homes also declined, according to RealtyTrac’s figures, which differ from other home-sales estimates.
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* Bank-owned home accounted for nearly 19 percent of all sales.
* On average a REO/ Bank owned home sells for 40 less than the average price of other homes, according to RealtyTrac. That’s an increase from 36 percent in the previous quarter and 34 percent from the same quarter one year ago.
* Sales of distressed homes ( in the foreclosure process or short sales) went for 21 % less than the average home sold. An increase of 17 % in the first quarter of 2011 and 14 % in the second quarter of 2010.
* The foreclosure property sold $164,217 nationally.
* Our home state, Nevada led all states with foreclosure sales, accounting for 65 percent of all home sales.
* In Arizona, foreclosure sales represented 57 percent of all home sales for the quarter, up 16 percent from a year ago.
* In California, foreclosure sales accounted for 51 percent of all home sales in the second quarter, virtually unchanged from last year.
* Several other states had foreclosure sales that accounted for at least one third of all home sales in the first quarter: Michigan, Colorado, Florida, Illinois and Oregon.
Based on those facts….are predictions are no housing market recovery of any significance and and increase in distressed sales.
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