Little Miami School District Home Value Review 2005 - 2011

By
Real Estate Agent with RE/MAX Elite 513.520.5305 www.LizTour.com SAL.2002007747
http://actvra.in/j2z

Little Miami School District Home Value Review 2005 - 2011

This is a no spin zone.  We're not CNN, MSNBC, Fox or whatever your particular station of choice is to get the slant that agrees with your perception of the world. Instead, we're Dragnet's Sgt. Joe Friday, "Just the facts ma'am".  Our apologies for the length of the post, but hang with us and you'll see why.

And these facts are unfiltered, no special manipulations to make them dance or sing, but just a straight data pull from the Cincinnati MLS for home sales since 2005.  Of course this table represents ONLY homes listed with a REALTOR® since those are the only homes posted for sale in Cincinnati MLS. 

A few definitions to clarify before we start the review:

  • Homes sold full year:  The NUMBER of homes sold Jan 1 - Dec 31
  • Homes sold first seven months:  The NUMBER of homes Sold Jan 1 - July 31
  • Average price:  Take all homes, add them together, divide by Quantity for Average price (this number can be skewed by exceptionally HIGH or LOW sales prices)
  • Median price:  Take all homes and sort high to low, go 1/2 way up the list and that price is the median (perhaps more representative of true market performance)
  • Days on Market (DOM):  Number of days from a home being placed on the market to an ACCEPTED contract and home is marked PENDING.  For Cincinnati MLS, take with a grain of salt.  Getting a new MLS number restarts the counter, so the DOM reported here are LOW vs. actuality, but still useful for spotting trends.


Little Miami School District Home Sales

So what is this table telling us?

  • That the quantity of homes sold has dropped approximately 1/3 since 2005.

 

  • That the average price has dropped 18% and the median price 14%.

 

  • That for the most part that homes are taking longer to sell than 2005.


But the left hand side of the table only provides a full year to year comparison, so what's happening THIS YEAR?  Well that's where the table on the right comparing first seven months of each year is useful, and here the news is particularly brutal:
Home values in Little Miami School District dropped 10% in since 2010 in both Average and Median prices.  That's easily the worst decline we've seen in our market area for a comparable period of time.

And perhaps there are other factors involved in this decline, but we have NOT seen a massive increase in Little Miami School District foreclosures and short sales over the last year, mass exodus by employers NOR some Crazy Eddie type fire sales by new home builders.  Homes sold over the last three years when comparing the first seven months of each year have been almost constant (254 to 258), with ONLY the prices dropping. 

Now we could be wrong, but we're going to connect this rapid decline in Little Miami School District Home Values to the continuing turmoil regarding the school district levies repeated failure to pass and the current school district being under Ohio state control.

Here's the bottom line, school quality is a primary driver in desirability for housing.  Parents don't want to risk their kids education on schools in turmoil, schools with no bus service, schools with program cutbacks.  Fortunately Little Miami School District has consistently maintained an Excellent or better rating over the last few years, but the PERCEPTION of the general home buying public is that there is a problem here, and home sellers trying to leave the area are discovering it the hard way and being forced to accept lower prices to complete the deal and move on with their lives.

Now we're not just arbitrarily making this assumption about Little Miami School District home value declines being tied to levy failures.  Let's look at Mason, Kings and Lebanon, neighboring school districts that have also consistently maintained an Excellent or better Ohio School Report Card rating.  We'd consider Lebanon to be the closest true comparison due to similar demographics, home pricing and a similar mix of town/rural. 

Lebanon City School District Home Sales

Kings Local School District Home Sales

Mason School District Home Sales

 

What do you see?  What we see is evidence that home prices are still negative from 2005 to the end of 2010, but all at a percentage significantly lower than Little Miami School District.  When examining the first seven month's section from 2010 to 2011, EVERY school district besides Little Miami appears to have turned the corner.  Average and Median home prices increased in all three of these other districts over the last year!  They're recovering and GAINING value while Little Miami is LOSING value. 

It would appear to us that the primary culprit IS the failure to get the school financial situation and reputation back under LOCAL control. 

Again, the tables are FACT based.  Our conclusion about the WHY Little Miami School Districts is opinion based, but it's an opinion formed as REALTORS® working closely with Little Miami School District home owners and buyers over the last decade, and closely following local events and trends. 

You can draw your own conclusions, but our recommendation is clearly to PASS the November tax levy and get your local market home value recovery started.  Without the school situation resolved, we'd expect Little Miami School District home values to continue to lag that of neighboring districts.

Serving Warren County's residential real estate needs,
Liz and Bill aka BLiz

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Serving Warren County Ohio & Adjacent Areas


The Liz Spear Team of RE/MAX Elite
Elizabeth Spear, ABR, CRS Ohio License SAL.2002007747

William (Bill) Spear, CRS Ohio License SAL.2004011109  Kentucky 77938
Ask for us by name if you visit the office!

EHO Two locations: Lebanon & Mason, OH
Bill Direct:  513-520-5305
Liz Direct: 513-265-3004     
Fax: 866-302-8418

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Joni Bailey
Berkshire Hathaway Home Services - Anderson Properties - Huntsville, TX
Your Huntsville / Lake Livingston Area REALTOR®

Passing the tax for the schools will not only benefit the home values of the future... those children ARE our future! VOTE YES!

Sep 06, 2011 05:55 AM #1
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Liz and Bill Spear
RE/MAX Elite 513.520.5305 www.LizTour.com - Mason, OH
RE/MAX Elite Warren County OH (Cincinnati/Dayton)

Joni, That's our viewpoint also.  Schools are an investment in the future.  Those kids getting educating today might be our doctors and nurses later.....or not if we don't take care of them.  And more immediately, having property values to continue to drop when the neighbors are going up just makes the situation worse.

Sep 06, 2011 06:06 AM #2
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Brenda Mullen
RE/MAX Access - Schertz, TX
Your San Antonio TX Real Estate Agent!!

This is a very well written blog!  You should see if you could get it published so that more folks are aware of the situation in the Little Miami School District.  It would seem to me that your facts and opinions are fairly sound with the numbers and trends to prove it. 

Sep 06, 2011 06:43 AM #3
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Liz and Bill Spear
RE/MAX Elite 513.520.5305 www.LizTour.com - Mason, OH
RE/MAX Elite Warren County OH (Cincinnati/Dayton)

Brenda, Thanks!  It's long, but it needed to be to lay the complete groundwork for what is happening to the area and why our opinion is what it is.

Sep 06, 2011 06:56 AM #4
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Christine Smith
Buyers Brokers Only LLC - www.BuyersBrokersOnly.com - Canton, MA
Exclusive Buyer Agent & Attorney, Canton, MA
Bliz.....property values everywhere generally go up or down with the perception of the schools. You have some great data here. Hopefully people in your area willnread it and pay attention to it.
Sep 06, 2011 02:19 PM #5
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Liz and Bill Spear
RE/MAX Elite 513.520.5305 www.LizTour.com - Mason, OH
RE/MAX Elite Warren County OH (Cincinnati/Dayton)

Christine, Will it's certainly holding true here.  Actually a shame because the school report cards are still doing well, but the side services have been sliced significantly.  Hoping for restoration of normal service if the levy passes in November.

Sep 06, 2011 02:56 PM #6
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Judi K Barrett
Judi Barrett~Integrity Real Estate Services~Idabel, Oklahoma - Idabel, OK
BA, Integrity Real Estate Services -IDABEL OK

Sounds like Little Miami Schoold district needs to get the PR efforts in gear so the levy passes in November.  Based upon your data, hopefully that home market will respond soon after that.  Nice informative post.

Sep 06, 2011 11:44 PM #7
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Liz and Bill Spear
RE/MAX Elite 513.520.5305 www.LizTour.com - Mason, OH
RE/MAX Elite Warren County OH (Cincinnati/Dayton)

Judi, We can only hope that logic wins out over emotion on the next election.  There's a tremendous amount of conflict between various factions, but the election was pretty close to passing this spring.  Hopefully this is the one that takes care of it.  We know there are efforts by the pro-levy group to win over the swing votes needed.

Sep 07, 2011 01:06 AM #8
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Mary Sheridan
Keller Willliams - 1033 Hamilton Place,Johnson City TN 37604 - Johnson City, TN
Creative Marketing, Buyer Agency 423-943-7655
  • You did a huge lot of work and tackled a provocative subject.   More people need to realize that blindly opposing any new taxes may have really bad effects on crucial services - schools being such a big factor in why people come to an area, why they stay, or why the leave.   Great job.   I assume you've got this information to the local newspaper and/or TV station.   
Sep 09, 2011 06:28 AM #9
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Liz and Bill Spear
RE/MAX Elite 513.520.5305 www.LizTour.com - Mason, OH
RE/MAX Elite Warren County OH (Cincinnati/Dayton)

Mary, We've been contacted so far by Cincy Magazine (targets business professionals) for input into an article, and the pro-levy committee has also been interested in the stats.  I know it's a touchy subject for many, but facts are facts, and losing tens of thousands of dollars in property value is just not a winnable solution.  After 8 straight rejects, it NEEDS to be passed if they want their district to get back to normal.

Sep 09, 2011 06:33 AM #10
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