Wow...haven't seen those stats anywhere...I thought florida was in a real estate state of emergency.  Talking to all my friends down there they think it will turn, but not anytime soon.

Brandon - some parts of Florida are worse than other parts. Central Florida is doing much better than South Florida as an example. These figures however, are national and official.

Simon - I can only assume that you see such a full glass because you are in the sunshine state. I am glad things are looking up there. In the DC area the watchword is patience, patience and a little more patience.

I saw that good news too.  I guess the media will be disappointed, just like they are that Hurricanes didn't wipe us off the map this year.

Thanks for spreading the good news. Also thanks for commenting on Our Need to Be Right Hinders Our Growth and Success

Simon - this seems to put the 770,000 in a different light.

September's new-home sales down 23%

For-sale inventory for month hits highest level since 1990

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Inman News

The sales rate for new single-family homes equaled the lowest rate for that month since September 1996, and sales were down about 23.3 percent compared to the same month last year, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported today.

The supply of homes for sale in September was 8.3 months, which was the largest supply for that month since September 1990 when it stood at 8.4 months. The months' supply is a projection of how long it would take to exhaust the inventory of for-sale homes at that month's sales rate.

A supply of greater than six months is generally considered to indicate a buyer's market. The supply reached nine months in August.

New homes spent a median 5.9 months for sale since completion in September, which was the highest level for that month since reaching 6.2 months in September 1992. That compares to a median 3.4 months for sale in September 2006.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of single-family home sales was 770,000 in September, compared with a September 2006 estimate of 1 million. The rate is a projection of a monthly sales total over a 12-month period, adjusted to account for seasonal fluctuations in sales activity.

The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2007 was $238,000, up 4.99 percent compared to the September 2006 median price of $226,700. And the September average price dropped 2.77 percent to $288,000, compared to $296,200 for that month last year.

Regionally, the rate of new single-family homes for sale dropped about 28.9 percent in the South, 28.3 percent in the Midwest, 12.2 percent in the West and 8.1 percent in the Northeast in September compared to September 2007.

The agencies noted that statistics are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to variability and error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting and undercoverage.

Changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show irregular movement, according to the report, and it can take five months to establish a trend for new houses sold. The new-home sales survey is primarily based on a sample of houses selected from building permits, and a sale is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed.

The preliminary seasonally adjusted estimate of total sales is revised about 4 percent, the agencies reported.

J-mac - you must be having a HUGE half empty day! Year on year the figures are reported as down 23%. But the August to September figures were supposed to drop according to analysts - and yet they rose 4.5. In what world is that NOT good news?

Dan - Thanks for commenting on this thread. The hurricane part is almost funny - particularly when you look at the forecasters. I remember last year our local guy was doing the round-up of the season and at the end of that he said - and this is a direct quote "So, hurricane season has been pretty much a bust". Funny!

Simon - They  thought that 300 homes would burn down in San Diego. It seems that only 150 burned down. I suppose in a twisted fashion that is good news. You fourth estate folks have the most incredible way of spinning the facts.

This is not spin J-mac. September figures were expected to drop 2.5% below August figures - but against that expectation, they rose 4.5%. I say again, in what world is that not good news?