by: Michael Polly Lagging indicators keep sellers behind the market   You can't see what's coming if your watching what has happened. The National Association of Realtors and the Florida Association of Realtors have released the September  sales numbers for the Fort Myers, Cape Coral and surronding Lee County areas. A year over year comparison of the September numbers show a 53% decline in sales with 327 homes sold. The numbers also show an 11% decline in median home price coming in at $231,600 down from $261,400 last year.

These number are widely used and indicators of how the market is doing. You should be careful as these are lagging indicators of our market condition and momentum. These numbers represent homes and condos that have closed in any particular month. Most closings are set for an arbitrary time period convenient for the buyer and seller. It could be 30 days or 90 days or anything else that fits the situation.  

The important fact in this is that the momentum of the market, the point in time when the market accepted the asking price was at the time the contract was written and accepted. This is far more important than when the closing occurred.   For years we have been using our Pending Sale Index (PSI) as a guide to the market conditions and momentum. We track sales as a function of when the contract was written. Based on the previous months PSI we would expect softness to continue in October and November.   We have said before that trying to get ahead of this market is like trying to catch a Slinky standing on the top of the steps. (See Where Do We Go From Here post)   Denny said it in his recent article Differing Opinions Create Confusion, that we must watch the instruments. I agree and looking out the front window is much better than looking in the rear view mirror.