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Mortgage Rate Update 10-19-11: Trends, Projections & Today's Best Rates

By
Mortgage and Lending with CMG Mortgage, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

Todays best mortgage rates. What can we expect from mortgage rates this week? All Real Estate Professionals & Consumers are advised to stay informed about interest rates and learn THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES. Whether you're a newbee, market analyst (or somewhere in between), keep yourself informed of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why).

Mortgage Street Smarts - Daily interest rate updates, daily mortgage rate projections, mortgage quotes, featuring todays best mortgage rates. Provided by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist Jason E Gordon, CMPS, Direct Lender, Mortgage Broker, San Diego, CA. Visit www.MortgageStreetSmarts.com for free online mortgage calculator, no hassle mortgage quote, and secure online mortgage loan application.

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Wednesday 10-19-2011 and will help you understand todays best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Tuesday with a WORSENING to pricing (and will typically warrant a pricing adjustment by most Lenders). Tuesday's WORSENING resulted in a change of 3 basis points (bps).

Best Mortgage Rates, San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon, www.ApprovingSD.com

The following chart shows the market activity for today (hint: upward activity is good, downward activity is bad):

Best Mortgage Rates, San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon, www.ApprovingSD.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

Best Mortgage Rates, San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon, www.ApprovingSD.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Best Mortgage Rates, San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon, www.ApprovingSD.com

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Best Mortgage Rates, San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon, www.ApprovingSD.com

Market Commentary

Analyst#1: Neil Trenerry

 

FNMA 30-Yr 3.5%

Previous close 101.188

Opened Down 0.188 @ 101.000

 

 

Key Economic Data:

UST 2 YR 0.27  Up  0.00

UST 5 YR  1.06  Up 0.01

UST 10 YR  2.20 Up  0.02

UST 30 YR  3.20  Up  0.03

 

EUR / USD   1.3812  Up  0.0060
USD / JPY  76.7800  Down  0.0400
GBP / USD  1.5832 Up  0.0119

Oil   88.47   Up   0.13

Gold   1,659.10  Up   6.30



Key Economic News:

 

Consumer Prices - Core Eases
Core CPI inflation eases in September on vehicles, apparel and rent. Housing starts rise more than expected due to a surge in multi-family starts. Permits fall more than anticipated.

Key Numbers:
CPI +0.3% (mom) for September vs. median forecast +0.3%.
Core CPI +0.1% (mom) for September vs. median forecast +0.2%.
Housing starts +15.0% (mom) for September vs. median forecast +3.3%.

Main Points:
1. The CPI increased by 0.3% (month-over-month) in September, in line with consensus forecasts. Food prices rose by 0.4% and energy prices by 2.0%. The latter was led by a 2.9% increase in gasoline prices.

2. The core CPI-excluding food and energy-increased by just 0.1% (month-over-month), or 0.054% unrounded. The deceleration reflected two main factors: weaker core goods prices and an easing in rent inflation. The core goods CPI fell by 0.2% after increasing by 0.4% in August. Apparel prices fell by 1.1% (following a gain a 1.1% last month) and vehicle prices fell by 0.2% (after an increase of 0.2% in August). We expect weakness in these components to persist going forward. Rent inflation also cooled during the month. The index of owners' equivalent rent (OER) rose by 0.12% in September, down from 0.21% in August. Lower rent inflation also contributed to the deceleration in the core. Despite the cooling this month, we expect that rent inflation will remain relatively high for the time being.

3. Housing starts increase by 15% in September to 658k, almost entirely due to a 51.3% surge in multi-family starts while single family starts rise by only 1.7%. Permits for new construction, however, decline 5%, more than expected, due a 14.5% fall in multi-family permits.

 

8:30: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks at Boston Fed conference on “Long-term Effects of the Great Recession”.

 

9:00: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart gives opening remarks at Atlanta Fed conference on Latin America.

 

14:00: Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book this afternoon—an anecdotal summary of economic conditions compiled by the regional banks. The last several releases have reported slowing growth across the country. For the latest release we expect the Beige Book to signal low but relatively stable growth rates.

 

16:30: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart on “Leadership and Career”.

 

Advice:

 

With a weaker Dollar, and CPI, Housing hitting the mark, I would expect the Market to be flat today.

 

My position on MBS stays Long (Starting to think about closing long position).

 

Analyst #2: Dan Rawitch

Here is the link to our daily video: http://ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html

We have good news on the inflation front.  Core inflation (excluding food and energy) was up on .01%, which keeps us running at a nice 2% annualized number.

The housing number looked good , but was not that great.  Most of the increase in housing starts resulted from the construction of Multi-Family, which in some ways, is a bet against single family homeownership (at least that is my personal opinion).  In fact, building permits were down.

Europe remains all talk and no action, with all sorts of real issues looming.

Thus far, bonds are happy about inflation, but that could swing with the beige book later today.

I continue to see far more downside than upside.  Not saying we don’t get a quick pop up, but my guess is it would be quick and signal a near term top.

Trusted Industry Advisor

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon. As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) and Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.jasonegordon.com or www.ApprovingSD.com or more information.

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