Regarding aftershocks, the USGS says:

... the probability of a strong and possibly damaging aftershock IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS is approximately 30 PERCENT. ... there is a small chance (APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 PERCENT) of an earthquake equal to or larger than this mainshock in the next 7 days. ... approximately 15 to 40 SMALL AFTERSHOCKS are expected in the same 7-DAY PERIOD ...

So there.

Here's where some of the aftershocks have landed - as you can see, they're pretty small:

9:00 Update: Plug1 reports an orange glow in the east bay sky. We can see nothing out of the ordinary from home at the top of St Mary's Heights (at Fulton/Stanyan). It sure is foggy tonight.

Sunnyside residents report shaking; Tendernob residents report nothing; Elihu in the Loin reports lengthy shaking; Nob Hill reports some panic. Spencer in San Jose reports that it was "scary as shit." Potrero Hill and SF State report feeling nothing; but then someone else in Potrero Hill reports normal shaking.

So now, it would appear that the situation is as follows: there was a big earthquake. It was scary. Everything's perfectly all right now. We're fine. We're all fine here now, thank you. How are you?

8:50 Update: CBS5 reports that chances are good that there'll be a 6.3 in the next 3 days. But Plug1your mom observes that they can't even get the weather right, so whatever. So far, there've been a few small aftershocks, all under 2.0.

We are unmoved by reports of "things falling off of shelves." Missionite's account of a perturbed cat, however, gave us goosebumps.

A quick survey of San Jose webcams shows nothing terribly awry: the city's not in flames, at least. SJSU; Tech Museum; CBS5. Here's CBS's live seismograph. CBS's live spirograph has apparently gone offline.

Still no news on KRON's site: all is well in San Francisco! Now, here's Jan Wahl with an new hat.

8:40 Update: Commenters report feeling like a jello mold; it sure was a long one, wasn't it? More nit-pickery over how much the north bay suffered, and about liquefaction and landfill and how a quicksand drowning beats living in the Sunset. Brock and Martin report that phone lines are clogged and calls aren't going through. Please don't test that; just trust that it's true for now, and hold your calls until things settle down a bit. Do email your parents, though.

8:35 Update: Local news stations are getting around to reporting that there was an earthquake. Who knew! No new information. CBS5; NBC11; KTVU. SFGate was hanging for a while but now has the same blurb as everyone else. Everything's hunky dory at KRON; no earthquake news at all.

8:25 Update: There was a 2.9 near Concord around 1pm today. Suckafree reports that his dog predicted it. Mariconsoy is already so drunk he's misspelling the brands in his emergency alcohol kit.

8:20 Update: Sangfroid nails it with a guess of 5.0 - turns out it was a 5.6. None of the local news websites have any info up, but it looks like SF made it through things pretty well - some shaking, no major damage reported yet. Craigslist is abuzz. Get your mind off the shaking by watching some near-misses with tornadoes.

8:15 Update:Recent earthquake activity is logged by the USGS here. Looks like this one is the one we felt. In case you're wondering where Alum Rock (close to the epicenter) is, check the Google map. Very close to San Jose. Some SFist staff report minimal shaking in the north bay; commenters say substantial movement in Corte Madera.

8:05 Update: Is everyone okay?

So far as the presentation concerned where we live, work, and play, we were encouraged by a $17.4 billion 10-year capital plan that includes measures for resurfacing streets, maintaining parks/rec, doing the same for libraries, and, importantly, devoting funds to fire protection/emergency response. But folks, particularly voters, should be less worried about future plans and more concerned with how Gavin executed on his recent plans. The answer? Well, as it pertains to the above issues, it seems pretty good: 20 active parks projects; plenty of progress on local libraries (6 complete, 1 active, 2 pending for ‘08; 5 for ‘09); and "greening" plans for streets throughout the city. And certain housing-related measures improved as well: almost 8,000 affordable housing units were built during his administration, and more than 6,000 formerly homeless people are among the beneficiaries. He also noted that evictions were down. If it seems over-optimistic- and perhaps glossing over many of the challenges faced by city residents- we suppose folks should keep in mind that, despite the less-than-imposing competitors, there is an election next week.
· Mayor Gavin Newsom Shows "Progress By The Numbers" in 4th Annual State of the City Address [sfgov.org]
· State of the City Presentation [sfgov.org; PDF]
· Newsom cites strides in Muni, homelessness in State of the City [Chronicle]
· Newsom claims progress in State of City address [Fog City Journal]

[Image courtesy Brant Ward for the San Francisco Chronicle; emphasis ours, natch.]

Today we received a (rightfully) irritated press release from Tom Radulovich, District 9 BART Director (co-signed by Chris Daly). It seems that he wasn't involved in the decision to go ahead and close BART on Halloween night. Which? Is bizarre and inappropriate considering, well, he's an elected District 9 BART Director.

The missive, which is long and available for your viewing pleasure below (and continues on after the jump), reads at the very end, "as the elected representatives of the 16th and Mission community, we call on BART to reverse its decision and agree to keep the station open on Halloween night." Oh my, is right.

And while we agree that closing BART on Halloween night is a bit...off, we wonder what they plan on doing about it? Other than sending out an angry press release about it.

On Friday, BART announced its intention to close its 16th Street Mission Station at 8pm on Halloween Night, October 31. BART management not only made the wrong decision, but they made it in the wrong way.Transit riders have been unfairly singled out in the city's War on Halloween, and BART's proposed closure is an insult to the community who relies on 16th Street Mission Station. People and businesses that depend on BART and MUNI will have their mobility compromised by this campaign to suppress the Halloween celebration in the Castro, although automobile access will not be similarly curtailed. This discriminatory policy falsely targets transit riders as the "problem". Reduced transit access on Halloween night will unduly burden the thousands of San Franciscans who want to enjoy Halloween responsibly, as well as people who may want nothing to do with Halloween, but are just trying to get home to their families. The effects of this closure will fall most heavily on the least mobile - seniors, people with disabilities, and parents with small children, and no thought has been given to their mobility needs.

Suppressing transit service also negates efforts over the last few years to encourage celebrants to take transit rather than drive, and may therefore encourage drinking and driving. BART's high-handed approach to the 16th and Mission closure is also a giant step backward for BART in its relationship with the community. Both of us have participated in efforts over the years to get BART and the City to plan their services and facilities around community needs and with greater community involvement. That BART's brand new General Manager chose to make this decision without any community consultation is regrettable; BART riders and the 16th and Mission community deserve greater respect than this.Since BART announced its decision, we have heard from residents, business owners, and community who will be adversely affected by this decision, asking that BART's ill-advised decision be reversed.

Halloween night has been an important public celebration in San Francisco for decades. Last year's Halloween celebration was huge, however it was badly managed by the City, and marred by a shooting late in the evening. BART, however, had no incidents of note on Halloween last year, and at the urging of Director Tom Radulovich and Supervisor Dufty, ran service later into the evening and provided Halloween revelers with flash passes to encourage transit ridership and discourage driving on Halloween night. The City's experience was regrettable, but BART's experience, building on its successful late night service for 1999 New Year's Eve, showed how the City, with timely and thoughtful planning, can use transit to minimize the impact of large events in the City.

After the event, Supervisor Dufty and the Mayor promised that a Public Task Force would be convened to figure out how to make Halloween a successful event. The promised community process never occurred. Instead, the Mayor and Supervisor Dufty rolled out its hasty "Home for Halloween" campaign. According to BART staff, a few weeks ago a request came from
representatives of the Mayor's office and Supervisor Dufty to close the 16th and Mission Station on Halloween Night. There was no mention of the proposed closure at any public meeting, nor was any meaningful public input solicited from the communities most affected by the proposed change.

Neither Supervisor Daly, who represents the 16th and Mission area on the Board of Supervisors, nor BART Director Tom Radulovich, who represents both the Castro and Mission districts on the BART Board of Directors, were consulted or informed of the proposed change.

As the elected representatives of the 16th and Mission community, we call on BART to reverse its decision and agree to keep the station open on Halloween night.

Chris Daly, District 6 Supervisor
Tom Radulovich, District 9 BART Director

"I like this ad. It's authentic. It's got a certain realism that really resonates. What is the artist attempting to establish in this scene? Despair and dereliction perhaps? The human condition?"

While we agree that staging starts to feel really homogenous once one tours oh, we don't know- maybe three or so condos, we nevertheless advocate for a good dish washing from time to time. Surprised at the $479, 000 list price (including a 1 bedroom, 1 bath apartment in the rear)? Or by the listing's closing line: "Side driveway provides access to back for RV or boat."
· Finally a house without staging! [Burbed]

·
House Voyeur: A Reimagined Ranch in the Oakland Hills [More Ways to Waste Time]

[ For more shots of this Eichler home visit Flickr user forepj; Images courtesy forepj via More Ways to Waste Time ]

The Picture (above): The pool scene at the Beacon on a sunny (albeit mildly windy) Sunday afternoon.

The Question: Any actual Beacon pool goers care to set the record straight? We'll thank you in advance for the plethora of plugged-in single guys (and gals) that have suddenly showed an interest in any one of the 24 active listings in the building.

The Palms Finds More Inventory And A Resale Hits The Market [SocketSite]

But just because you can bargain hard on commissions doesn't mean you always should. Think of it this way: A commission is prize money. All things being equal, a buyer's agent will show a home paying a 6.5 percent commission to one paying 4 percent.That's why I sweetened the pot by offering an extra 0.5 percent for the buyer's agent. Compared with other homes for sale in my neighborhood, my commission was the highest.

Less than two weeks after my agent and I signed the contract for 6.5 percent, we had a deal on my house. An acquaintance living nearby who offered 4 percent hasn't sold his house in a year.

You tend to get what you pay for. Even in real estate.

The residential real estate market may be troubled, but property-focused Web sites are still attracting visitors and investors.Curbed.com, a popular real estate blog network with sites in New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles, has obtained $1.5 million in financing to expand into new cities and add staff members. According to Lockhart Steele, the network's publisher, traffic is growing 10 percent a month and the site is drawing national advertisers.

Congrats to SF Realblog's blogroll member Curbed. The SF revamp is looking pretty good, too.

And the original developer's unit (#1701) that we also mentioned in the building and was listed for $7,000,000? Yes, it's in contract.

∙ Listing: 1750 Taylor Street #1201 (3/3.5) - $6,750,000 [Nina Hatvany] [MLS]
∙ The SocketSite Scoop On Two In The Royal Towers (1750 Taylor) [SocketSite]

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ Further Weakening in Home Prices According to the S&P/Case-Shiller® HPI (pdf) [S&P]
∙ July S&P/Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco MSA Continues Decline [SocketSite]