It's always nice to know what's going on out in the desert. As you know, you have a very unique market. Pre-2004 prices, WOW. Have a happy Halloween!

Renee, so prices are sliding back to pre-2004 levels?  Does that mean you still think that in 2006,
real estate was never a better value? I can't wait to hear the answer to this one.

Sam:  Thank you for stopping by!

John S:  Wouldn't expect anything less from you and I answered the question last time you said that!  Listen to me this time:  THE STUFF THAT HAS BEEN SELLING THIS YEAR HAS BEEN SELLING AT GOOD PRICES.  So maybe now that we have LARGE ACROSS THE BOARD PRICE CUTS, rather than picking out needle in a haystack deals, it will help give new construction a boost?!?!?! I don't expect you to answer that :shaking head:

Yes, of course falling prices should help boost sales volume (or at least slow down the decrease).  My point is, 2006 was not the best time to buy, not by a long shot.  Was this unclear?  

I realize it is more fun to blog with no accountability, but is this fair to your readers?

Why don't you ask stated income 100% borrowers who received their loans with a minimum 620 fico score that 6% first and 8% seconds in Jan and Feb and WOULD not be able to buy right now and would be stuck at the mercy of our rental market that is going insane.  Their payments are mirroring rental prices for comparable homes.

What about someone who had 3% down on an FHA and got the seller to pay closing costs PLUS discount the rate and they are paying less than rent?

What about investors who are enjoying low vacancy rates, quick turnaround and upward pricing pressure in the rental markets? 

Increasing population in Clark County has a need for housing either way. 

It's all about perception and not entirely about prices, John. 

As far as accountability goes, I have more statistics included in my blog than any other area professional. Those stats show an inherent need for housing in the valley.  This is probably the wrong post to flame me on because it is just another post that proves more need for housing.

Fair to my readers?  They will be the judge I imagine. 

I would love to hear your qualifications about being an expert on the Las Vegas Valley as far as real estate goes. 

I recently went to a class where the instructor brought up that Las Vegas is the fastest growth area in the country and has the most foreclosures as well. This is mind boggling to me. To you contribute the multi family permits to the foreclosure rate?

Actually I would think it would be from too many speculators entering the market in 2004/2005.  The amount of housing available is scary in this town.  Not enough rentals and not enough people can buy right now.  We also anticipate another surge of growth in late 2008 to 2009 from the opening of City Center and other large projects.

Renee, I am not an expert.  I read your blog to see the numbers that you publish.  Then I use about 2 brain cells to see that prices are currently falling and will continue to fall as long as the the absorption rate is significantly over 6 months.  It's way over that, as you have told us yourself.  This is not rocket science, so it surprises me when you seem to make statements that are opposite of the facts.  Real estate was not the best  value in 2006; in fact, it was probably the worst.  If you just admitted you had made a mistake, I wouldn't harp on this, but instead you seem to actually be proud of that particular post, since you put it into your Six Pack.

One of the reasons I read your blog is because I like LV and might eventually buy a condo there, but how can I take your advice when you would have had me buy in 2006?  I would have spent much more than I needed to if I had bought then.  Using the numbers you publish, I can see it is going to get worse before it gets better; it's all there in plain sight in the numbers.  I realize you have to make a living, but telling people that real estate in 2006 was the best value ever is going way too far, IMO.

Anyway, I wasn't going to post so many times to this entry, but I will answer your questions as long as you keep asking them. 

I blatantly said "economic conditions willing" in that post.  It is obvious with the disappearance of certain mortgage products since that post, that some of the predictions did not come true.  In January New Construction, priced right, broke all units sold records in 2003-2006.  In February the same sector broke records in units sold 2003-2005.  We saw absorption and an uptick in units sold until the first subprime meltdown at the end of February.

There are some sectors of our market that are NOT doing well (years and years of inventory absorption) and then there are some that are moving (just slightly over that 6 month inventory absorption mark that you mention).  That is the whole point of my blog to point those out. 

Wouldn't you want to work with an individual wherever you buy (not necessarily JUST Las Vegas) that knows where the moving sectors are and where the sectors are that are set for a major correction? 

Condos and high density housing will be in large demand in the future, especially those with great proximity to the strip.  Right now it may not be the best value as that sector still needs to correct.  Single family homes with unique aspects (pool, community, location) are MOVING and rental values are spiking while values are still being rolled back (not as much as anticipated).

There are so many different sectors and products it is difficult to paint our entire market with a broad brush.

Real estate in 2006 is and was a good value but snatching up real estate just because and without doing research is NEVER a good value.  When you work with someone who will give you information on whether the sector you are wanting to buy in  is a good value & ahead of the curve, can help you make a better decision.

I have personally counseled MANY sellers and buyers this year that were wanting to sell in the oversaturated condo/townhome market and buying in the single family to HOLD OFF or do not proceed until they are in a position to rent out the property.  I do NOT get paid to give that type of advise, do I?