Home > Blogs > JP Marzano > JP Marzano's (themortgagecall) Blog

Investors are "bullish" on housing?

By JP Marzano

Mortgage and Lending with Movement Mortgage NMLS # 574681

October 24, 2011 04:47 AM

I read an article this morning about the "bull case" for housing in 2012. I see the optimism but I guess I'm more of a realist. It's just hard to see how things are going to turn around so quickly. Yes, I know that the exchange-traded funds for home builders are up 30%, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency has just announced new changes to their sponsored refinance programs that will supposedly alleviate the foreclosure market and stabilize housing prices...BUT...considering the backlog of lenders underwriting departments, the glut of inventory, and the pending "triple-dip" in foreclosures, I'm more inclined to agree with the people that commented on the article: most americans cannot do what needs to be done to reverse the declining trends in housing. It's simply not feasible. Too much debt, not enough jobs, inflationary costs of food and medical are rising, etc. etc.

Take a look at this presentation...I'd like to know what YOU think...

http://www.businessinsider.com/harvest-capital-the-2012-turn-in-housing-2010-10

Re-Blog

Comments(4)

Comment

Show All Comments

Sort:

Mike Carlier

Lakeville, MN

More opinions than you want to hear about.

They make as good as possible case for investing in Move, Inc. The rest of the report tells me that the rate of increase in the decrease may be on the wane. Their position can be summarized with the statment that "What goes down will probably come back up." Growth in new construction seems dominated by apartment building construction, and our current government leadership would approve of that.

Oct 24, 2011 05:13 AM

JP Marzano

Movement Mortgage - Chicago, IL

312-608-1555-Specializing in VA, Condos, and more!

I agree with you, Mike. It'd be interesting to see what things would be like, (say, looking back to 2007) if the government hadn't tried to "fix" the housing crisis. The commercial industry was headed towards disaster but for the most part, it has corrected itself. The HARP 2.0 program that was just introduced is, in my opinion, too little too late. I guess to your point, I'm saying that things might bounce back if there's less intervention...but we know that's not going to happen. Time tells all....

Oct 25, 2011 05:51 AM

Well, you can't get closer to less intervention than the latest administration popularity gimmick. Allowing people who are not in trouble to refinance without using the monthly interest savings to accelerate principal reduction is absurd. It is vote-buying at best and has zero effect on housing.

Oct 25, 2011 07:22 AM

Vote buying it is. Helping less than 10% more homeowners try to refinance, all while putting more debt on taxpayers makes no sense to me. Either does the additional bailout money going to Fannie and Freddie. Either does the most recent "increase president popularity poll" move to amend student loan debt. After all is said and done, it might save the average person $4-$7/month. The net effect on housing will be zero...I completely agree. Without reducing principal and allowing homeowners do some kind of rate/note re-negotiation (instead of offering garbage modifications and glorified forbearance agreements), this cycle won't end.

Oct 27, 2011 05:55 AM

Comments(4)

JP Marzano

Recent Posts