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Buying in Uncertain Times: What If Prices Head Down Again?

By
Real Estate Agent with RLAH@properties AB95346

It seems that all of my conversations with prospective home buyers include concerns on their part that prices may go down again.  With all of the talk of double dip recession possibilities and the huge number of about-to-be-foreclosed on properties, that it might be better to just wait it out.

And it might indeed be better.

Or it might not be.

Let's say that worst case, you buy now and prices decline.  This has happened more than a few times during my three decades of selling real estate.  And while what happens in the past doesn't necessarily tell us what will happen in the future, the prices have always come back at some point.  Prices tend to go up and down in cycles, and the up cycles usually involve higher highs.

If you find yourself having to sell during a down part of the cycle - let's say a really down part - you could find yourself losing money on your sale.  But if you are buying another house, you will probably wind up paying less for your new place than if you had purchased it in the market where you bought your first home.

In other words, it's a wash.

And if you are buying in the Washington area, you have another option.  The market for rentals has pretty much always been a very strong one.  You can hang onto the old home and rent it out until the market comes back.  Still, you need to keep in mind that if you are renting in the District of Columgia, you have to be careful to comply with the landlord tenant laws, meaning you must get a business license and register the house or apartment.  In the area, the demand for good rentals has remained high, as have rents. 

If you are buying a home you plan to own and live in for the long term, the prices are likely to increase again before it's time for you to sell.  But there are no guarantees.

In the 1990's, the Washington area was totally in the dump.  We had a mayor who was headed for the slammer, a city that was broke, and not just financially, awful public schools, huge pot holes in the streets (we called them cocaine holes) and some idiot was running around the Mount Pleasant area shooting people at ramdom.  There were a few riots, and lots of people were selling, trying to get out of Dodge.  And the few brave souls I represented who bought thier homes here during this period think I am totally brilliant - the ones who sold between 2002 and 2007 made a killing, and all of these homes are worth much more than their purcahse price at that time..  These buyers jumped off the fence when nobody else had the guts to do it.

If you have reservations about buying now, you are not alone.  And that is exactly why you can buy low now so you can sell high in the future.  If you wait until the return of the 2006 market, that might not be possible.

 

 If you are planning a move to or from the Washington, DC area, I can help!  I am licensed in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia.  You may call, email or text me at: 

Housepat@mac.com

202-549-5167

 

 

Craig Rutman
Helping people in transition - Cary, NC
Raleigh, Cary, Apex area Realtor

Any investor will tell you that trying to time the market is not a prudent way to make buying decisions. My thought is that if youre ready now, buy now.

Oct 25, 2011 07:17 AM
Ritu Desai 703-625-4949
Samson Properties - Chantilly, VA
Northern Virginia,Washington DC & Maryland Realtor

Pat, having additional information incomplete on hand is more harmful than having no information. DC metro area buyers forget media is not talking about local market.

Oct 25, 2011 07:28 AM
Hannah Williams
HomeStarr Realty - Philadelphia, PA
Expertise NE Philadelphia & Bucks 215-820-3376

Pat  None of us have a crystal ball ..but in the long run it is certainly cheaper than renting

Oct 25, 2011 07:40 AM
Holly Weatherwax
Associate Broker, Momentum Realty - Reston, VA
A Great Real Estate Experience

Pat, this is a very timely post--there are a lot of fence sitters.

When you have to sell 'at a loss,' you have to also consider the tax advantages that you have enjoyed during the period of ownership. I think folks often forget about that!

 

Oct 25, 2011 07:56 AM
Dorie Dillard Austin TX
Coldwell Banker Realty ~ 512.750.6899 - Austin, TX
NW Austin ~ Canyon Creek and Spicewood/Balcones

Good afternoon Pat,

Excellent advice! I haven't been able to polish my crstyal ball enough lately but your last paragrahp says it all:

If you have reservations about buying now, you are not alone.  And that is exactly why you can buy low now so you can sell high in the future.  If you wait until the return of the 2006 market, that might not be possible.

Oct 25, 2011 08:12 AM
Jeff Dowler, CRS
eXp Realty of California, Inc. - Carlsbad, CA
The Southern California Relocation Dude

Pat

Timing the market is risky and I suspect those that try do not better than those who just forge ahead when it make financial sense for them to do so. As we know, you won't know when you have hit bottom until after you have done so and prices are on the rise. If someone is not planning to be in their home for more than several years, it may not be the right time.

Jeff

Oct 25, 2011 08:32 AM
Richard Iarossi
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage - Crofton, MD
Crofton MD Real Estate, Annapolis MD Real Estate

Pat,

Trying to time the bottom of any market is a fools game. It's been tried before many times, and without much success.

Rich

Oct 25, 2011 09:14 AM
Lou Ludwig
Ludwig & Associates - Boca Raton, FL
Designations Earned CRB, CRS, CIPS, GRI, SRES, TRC

Pat

The economy will go up and it will go down, the best time to buyer a home is when you need one.

It looks like a lot of people needed a home in Washington in the last year.

Good luck and success.

Lou Ludwig

Oct 25, 2011 09:18 AM
Michelle Francis
Tim Francis Realty LLC - Atlanta, GA
Realtor, Buckhead Atlanta Homes for Sale & Lease

Pat, 

The world of real estate is incredibly up and down.  The goal is to buy low and sell high.  Timing to the exact low point is nearly impossible, as one doesn't know you've hit bottom til after it's already on the way back up.  Hiting around the bottom is easier and will still work out well financially. 

For Atlanta - Buckhead at least, we are at or near bottom.  There is just too little inventory.  Multiple offers are common!  The south will rise again!

All the best, Michelle

Oct 25, 2011 12:21 PM
Carl Winters
Canyon Lake, TX

There are many homes for sale in the Canyon Lake TX area at some excellent prices. If your situation allows, don't hesitate now is your time. I'm sure it is pretty much the same all over the country. 

Oct 25, 2011 01:59 PM
Tom Arstingstall, General Contractor, Dry Rot, Water Damage Sacramento, El Dorado County - (916) 765-5366
Dry Rot and Water Damage www.tromlerconstruction.com Mobile - 916-765-5366 - Placerville, CA
General Contractor, Dry Rot and Water Damage

In reading this post, something occurred to me. If the price of homes dropped in half tomorrow, these same people would wonder if prices would continue to decline. It seems that maybe the buyer will only commit to buying if the prices go up. We are indeed in uncertain times.

Oct 25, 2011 07:28 PM
Yvette Chisholm
Long & Foster Real Estate, Inc. - Rockville, MD
Associate Broker - Rockville, MD 301-758-9500

When prices fall they often don't fall back to before the last rise and over time prices with inflation tend to go up eventually.   The trick is how long is that? 10, 20, 30 years?    The good thing about buying a home is that every month the mortgage gets paid down and after your mortgage is paid off - you own an asset free and clear and short of a LOVE CANAL incident - that is a great investment.

Oct 26, 2011 03:49 AM
Barbara-Jo Roberts Berberi, MA, PSA, TRC - Greater Clearwater Florida Residential Real Estate Professional
Charles Rutenberg Realty - Clearwater, FL
Palm Harbor, Dunedin, Clearwater, Safety Harbor

Prices are low, interest rates are low........what is there to consider? If prices go lower, who is to say that interest rates won't be on their way UP??? You have to take advantage of what is a GREAT market and that is what we have NOW.

Oct 27, 2011 05:46 AM
Ruthmarie Hicks
Keller Williams NY Realty - 120 Bloomingdale Road #101, White Plains NY 10605 - White Plains, NY

Timing the market is absolutely impossible. Some people do succeed, but that is just dumb luck.  You don't  know if you are at the bottom until prices start heading back up.  We all have 20/20 hindsight, but no one has 20/20 foresight - becuase no one knows the future.  One thing is certain, those who buy into a depressed market do better than those buying into a rising market.  That's just common sense.

Nov 07, 2011 04:49 AM