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If you are considering locking in an interest rate for a New York mortgage or a Florida mortgage, read this post.
The Conference Board gave us this morning’s economic news when they posted October's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM ET. They announced a reading of 39.8 that fell well short of forecasts or 46.0 and was a sizable decline from September’s level. In fact, this was the lowest reading since March of 2009, meaning consumers were much less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This indicates that consumers are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future, helping to limit economic growth. Even though this data is considered moderately important for the most part, it was enough if a variance from forecasts to influence the financial markets and mortgage pricing.
There are two economic reports scheduled for release tomorrow morning. The first is September’s Durable Goods Orders from the Commerce Department at 8:30 AM ET. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. Analysts are currently calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 1.0%. If we see an unexpected increase in orders, mortgage rates will probably rise as bond prices fall. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data can be quite volatile from month to month and is difficult to forecast. Therefore, a small variance from forecasts likely will have little impact on bond trading or mortgage pricing. September's New Home Sales will also be released from the Commerce Department, but at 10:00 AM ET. This data covers the remaining 15% of home sales that last week's Existing Home Sales report didn’t include and is this week's least important data. It is expected to show an increase in sales of newly constructed homes, but regardless of its results I am not expecting it to have a significant impact on mortgage rates.
Also tomorrow is the first of the two Treasury auctions that have the potential to influence mortgage pricing. Tomorrow’s auction has 5-year Notes being sold while Thursday will be 7-year Notes. If these sales are met with a strong demand, particularly Thursday's auction, bond prices may rise during afternoon trading. This could lead to improvements to mortgage rates shortly after the results of the sales are posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. But a lackluster investor interest may create selling in the broader bond market and lead to upward revisions to mortgage rates late in the day.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Empire Home Mortgage Inc. is a registered Mortgage Broker with the New York and Florida State Banking Departments and our loans are arranged through third party providers.