Shrinking Inventory Trend Continues in Northeast Florida. Will Price Increases Follow?

The downward trend in home inventory continues in Jacksonville, St. Augustine and throughout our Northeast Florida area. In fact, that's the most consistent story in our market trends this year according to the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for September. The inventory of homes for sale continues to drop. There were 16,280 active properties for sale in September 2010 and there are 32% fewer properties (11,011) in September 2011.The inventory has dropped every month in the past year. The months supply of inventory is at 7.7 months supply compared to 11.6 months in September 2010, a 34% decrease.

It stands to reason that the inventory reductions we are seeing in Northeast Florida should lead to increased pricing in the future.  But for now the median sales price in September 2011 remains down nearly 5% from September 2010: $124,000 median sales price September 2011 compared to $130,000 in September 2010. However, the average sales price of $172,722 in September 2011 is up 4% over the average sales price of $165,747 in September 2010.

The average sales price for single family homes in the following Northeast Florida neighborhoods is:
          Up slightly to $213,300 in 32092/World Golf Village area
          Up slightly to $261,084 in 32095/Palencia area
          Down slightly to $268,012 in 32259/Julington Creek area
          Up slightly to $604,325 in 32082/Ponte Vedra area

Activity is definitely up this year and clearly a real estate recovery is underway in Jacksonville and St. Augustine, albeit slowly.  Pending sales in September 2011 are up 24% over September 2010. The year to date pending sales for  2011 are up 7% over year to date 2010. The North Florida market has averaged 1,450 pending sales a month for the last 12 months compared to a 1,385 average for the previous 12 months.

There were 1,315 closed sales in September 2011 which is 1% more than September 2010. The year to date 2011 closings are also up about 1% over last year. The closings in September were down a little from the previous 6 months for the north Florida market; however Davidson Realty had more closings in September than any other month this year except for June.  Overall we're $7 million ahead of 2010 for home closings and happy to see positive trends in pending sales, closings and inventory.