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Wow.. Where will we hit bottom

I was in a meeting a couple of weeks ago. In the meeting the speaker , President of a sub contractor company. Talked about where the market was and what the analysis were predicting. The homework he did was very thorough and he made some great points. The anaylsis predicted that the housing market would hit bottom in Sept. 2008. With the number of new housing permits to be around 1,200,000. Funny thing happened.

The next morning before more meetings I read in the USA TODAY that in Sept. 2007 the new housing permits were 1,191,000 nation wide. Wow

So are we nearing the bottom or can we expect the Real Estate industry to level off?

I wish I knew...

Posted by Ken Nimmo on 11/03/2007 08:24 AM

Comments (12)

market, arizona, mortgage, housing, home builders, contractors, new homes, resale homes, realtor

Post is included in group: Prescott

12 Comments on Wow.. Where will we hit bottom

NOV

2007

Ken-I don't think anyone knows where the bottom is. Our area was thinking the end of 2008, and now they are saying the end of 2009. Too bad my crystal ball is broken.

As with anything once you hit bottom you can only go UP!!

It's agony to not know when this will all end!

With such a long road ahead, anyone who thinks they know, doesn't know what they don't know.

I don't know when, but I know what.

When incomes increase sufficiently that a family can buy a decent home for their qualifying price range, they'll buy.

Or, prices come down to a range where folks can qualify for a decent home for their income.

I'm putting my money on the latter.

I suppose the bottom is what you want it to be?

Sorry for being so deep this early....

Connor MacIVOR

Good Post for Pondering...

Ken

No telling! I am tired of trying to figure it all out. I have just gone back to basics, working hard, and knowing that this turn is also a natural and necessary cleansing in our industry, that the strong will survive, and I plan on being one of them! Always an optimist I believe that things will get better. By the way...... Thank you so much for inviting me to join Active Rain! I owe you Buddy!

Deb

I believe this to be a "normal" market. We had a 10 year spike. Hopefully the spike will return to northern & western az. soon. This normal market stuff isn't as much fun !

Here's what's happening in Tucson. Click the link; you'll be encouraged.

This is not a normal market by any sense.

Deb,, Good to hear from ya.

I am watching Title companies lay off and close. I watch Mortgage implode sight and there are over 170 companies not doing mortgages. Of course they still collect from me.

I see contractors going to skeleton crews and or shutting down. I see just in Yavapai county 180 properties heading to trustee sale.

In the news they were saying that in Phenix 1 of 3 homes are now facing foreclosure.

Time to shake the crazy 8 ball..

If this is a normal market we are doomed.

The bottom will be different in different areas of the country. Some of the harder hit places like California and Florida will bottom out later than other areas of the country. I do think we are close to the bottom though. Recovery will be slow whenever it bottoms out.

I agree the recovery will trickle. Hopefully we can level off..

I have kept in close contact with others in the Prescott area, friends and colleagues, like Ken. I moved to Central Texas just before the bottom fell out. From the sounds of of all I have heard it has been pretty bleak in Arizona, mirroring the swing in the California pretty closely (Prescott kind of got like a California suburb before I left!). I agree that some areas are affected worse than others. I still think that given a little time things will adjust (as was necessary) and recovery will begin. Hang in there Ken!

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