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Where is the Line????

By
Real Estate Agent with Aubrey and Associates Realty

If Walmart were having a 40 to 60% off Sale the line in Cedar City would stretch at least to Enoch! For those who aren’t familiar with Cedar City that is approximately 7 or 8 miles. I will be honest, comparing the Real Estate Market to a store really isn’t a good comparison, I would say a better comparison is comparing it to buying a car. The reason that I say that is because a car purchase like a home purchase often involves a loan of some sort. Many markets across the country are seeing prices at least 40% off their market high, I would dare say that at many price points, the market in Cedar City is there as well.

How would you like to own a Lexus for the price of a Toyota, an Acura for the price of a Honda or a Cadillac for the price of a Chevrolet? That is what we’re talking about, prices reduced by levels many will never see again in their lifetimes. How about owning a Rolls Royce for what you would pay for a Mercedes? These are the price reductions we’re talking about. Home prices combined with historically low interest rates make this the best time we may ever see to buy a home.

It isn’t just me who is saying that it is a great time to buy a home, Donald Trump, America’s favorite boss is saying it, so are the Wall Street Journal and Business Weekly and many other publication. Many of you are saying that prices haven’t bottomed out, that may be true, but consider a couple of things. If interest rates rise just 1%, the home price would have to drop nearly 9% for you to stay at the same payment before the interest went up. A couple of other things to consider, rent prices are rising at nearly 6% across the country.

Another factor is that we only have so much land that we can build on. We just aren’t making more land, so there isn’t an unending supply of Real Estate, even in severely depressed Real Estate Markets. This year, our new housing starts across the United States will be around 500,000. One of the lowest in decades, but in the next 4 or 5 years with population increases it is projected that the U. S. will need 16,000,000 new housing units just to keep up with increases in population. What do you think that will do to home values?

Too many people talk about a home as an investment. I am not saying that it isn’t an investment, but in only talking about it as an investment isn’t doing it justice. It is a basic human need, everyone needs shelter, and the for the vast majority of people, the dream of home ownership is still a great motivating factor in life. It is true, the net worth of a home owner versus a renter is vastly greater.

Now is the time to buy, not in the Spring, but now! I know that it is not much fun to move in the Winter. We know, 2 of our last 3 moves (over 10 years) have taken place in either January, or in the middle of a huge Spring snowstorm. The truth is that you can’t afford to wait, if interest rates climb just a little, it will make a home much less affordable for you. This is no secret, Investors are already buying homes in droves, so prices will eventually begin to climb across the board and in some price points we are already seeing that very thing. Mark Twain once said something like “When your life is nearly over you will regret more the things that you DIDN’T Do than the things that you did do.”

Now is one of those times! It is something that if you are in a position to do so, you need to look into buying a home! To get you started, contact either Darcy or myself, we would love to earn your trust and help you live your dreams with a home for you and your family! We can guide you on the path to achieving the American Dream!

The.C.Team.Real.Estate.Photography

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If you're looking to buy or sell real estate in South Davis County, Utah; please give us a call.  We would love to earn your business!

Comments(57)

Silvia Dukes PA, Broker Associate, CRS, CIPS, SRES
Tropic Shores Realty - Ich spreche Deutsch! - Spring Hill, FL
Florida Waterfront and Country Club Living

Tony and Darcy, not much to add so just this... if you buy now, you will celebrate the holidays and the New Year in your new home!  Wouldn't that be wonderful?

Nov 15, 2011 05:04 AM
Former Agent
None - Adak, AK

All excellent points.  Curious, how did you come upon the statistics regarding a 1% increase in interest rate requiring a 9% drop in price to balance out?

Nov 15, 2011 05:15 AM
Kate Akerly
Kaminsky Group - Manhattan Beach, CA
Manhattan Beach Residential Sales

Buy when others are fearful - it's usually good advice.  Purchasers who are qualified and have a stable fianncial situation should strongly consider purchasing if the rent vs. own analyis makes sense in the market they're considering buying in.

Nov 15, 2011 05:21 AM
Marte Cliff
Marte Cliff Copywriting - Priest River, ID
Your real estate writer

I do agree with Jon (#4) that we cannot predict and it might be dangerous to do so.

However - we also cannot predict when interest rates will rise or prices will begin to inch up. If you want to live in a home of your own, you should definitely buy while both prices and interst rates are down. Then you should lock into a payment that's comfortable NOW and will be even more comfortable as your income rises.

Those who do the math will see that you are absolutely correct about the difference just a 1% difference in interest rates will make.

Nov 15, 2011 05:22 AM
Brad Baylor
ERA Coup Agency - Milton, PA

I agree with you that thinking of a home purchase only as an investment is unwise.  It can make people extremely unhappy when they try to sell it in 5 years or less and find that it's worth the same of even less, and they will have to bring a check to closing just so they can sell!

Nov 15, 2011 05:22 AM
Kimo Jarrett
Cyber Properties - Huntington Beach, CA
Pro Lifestyle Solutions

It's always a great time to buy if it's prudent and economically manageable, so it depends on the circumstances and the transaction, doesn't it? your primary home should always be viewed as a liability, not an investment unless you plan on moving within the next few years, if so, your exit plan should be analyzed thoroughly.

Nov 15, 2011 06:26 AM
Gene Riemenschneider
Home Point Real Estate - Brentwood, CA
Turning Houses into Homes

Great post with some real things for people to think about.  I agree now is the best time to buy in history.

Nov 15, 2011 07:01 AM
Geoff Grist
Mosman Neutral Bay Realty, Sydney Australia - Sydney, AU
Author of Sold Above Market book

I have always used the line, the best time to buy a home was yesterday, the next best time is today.

Nov 15, 2011 07:57 AM
Kathy McGuriman
First time home buyers, downsizers,seniors,new construction - Lansdale, PA
CRS, SRES, ACRE, Realtor for Lansdale, PA area

Tony & Darcy - Right on!  And I feel bad that you have had snow.  Oh wait, we did too - before Thanksgiving :)

 

Nov 15, 2011 08:07 AM
Judy Orr
HomeSmart - Scottsdale, AZ
Scottsdale AZ and surrounding towns

This is a great post and I've written similar posts about interest rates vs. prices and many buyers don't understand - they don't do the math!  I don't know when prices will go back up in my area, but I'm thinking it is inevitable that it will happen.  In fact, some towns I work in are holding steady now or even showing a small increase.

Nov 15, 2011 08:23 AM
Lyn Sims
Schaumburg, IL
Real Estate Broker Retired

Homes are 'not only' investments but a place to raise your family. Most top money analysts are saying to buy & that phrase 'Buy when there's blood in the streets' has always been true.

Nov 15, 2011 08:27 AM
Tony & Darcy Cannon
Aubrey and Associates Realty - Layton, UT
The C Team

Thanks everyone for your comments!  I do appreciate them!

Nov 15, 2011 09:59 AM
Winston Heverly
Coldwell Banker Access Realty - South Macon, GA
GRI, ABR, SFR, CDPE, CIAS, PA

The best time to buy is when all your ducks are in a row. The game has changed and the real buyers are the ones moving the market. It happens to be over 50% investors in the South Florida area.

Nov 15, 2011 11:19 AM
Kate Elim
Dockside Realty - Spotsylvania, VA
Realtor 540-226-1964, Selling Homes & Land a

Hi Tony...I like Marte's (#47) comment.  I would only change one thing.  Where she suggests a payment that you are comfortable with now and will be more comfortable with when your income increases I would suggest you work with a payment that you are very comfortable with now and would be comfortable with even if your income decreased some.  

For so long we thought in terms of buying to the max.  Perhaps buyers should be more moderate now.

Don't forget the 15 year loan.  That's one of the best ways of building equity faster even in a market that may be moving upwrard slowly.

Kate

Nov 15, 2011 02:46 PM
Sharon Vest
Century 21 JC Jones American Dream - Grants Pass, OR

I love your analogy regarding purchasing a vehicle.  It usually is more about the monthly payment than the price or rate and it is true for real estate as well.

We will not know that the market has hit bottom until it is already on the way up!  No one can fully predict our future in terms of income status.  Things happen to people that are least expected.  All you can really do is pay the fair market price for a home at the point in time that you make your purchase.  Values may fluctuate up and down over time but eventually the curve resumes it's climb     

Nov 15, 2011 05:19 PM
Jayson Holland
Listings.com - Denver, CO
Jay Holland

Can you walk me through the math on your stat of "If interest rates rise just 1%, the home price would have to drop nearly 9% for you to stay at the same payment before the interest went up." I'm having trouble building an example where that computes.

I'd appreciate it. Thanks!

Nov 16, 2011 03:05 AM
Bob Miller
Keller Williams Cornerstone Realty - Ocala, FL
The Ocala Dream Team

Hi Tony, Great point about Walmart and the buying opportunity.  In Florida we are have fire sales!  Wild fire sales!

Nov 16, 2011 11:53 AM
BILLY CRITTENDEN
Missoula Valley Properties, LLC - Missoula, MT
Broker/Owner,ABR,CRS,CNE,CNHS,GRI,RCC,SFR,SRS,SRES

Tony,

I believe the majority of our problem lies in lack of consumer confidence. We are definitely in an economic environment we haven't experienced in our life time. When the market comes back will be dependent on the confidence in our economy.

Nov 17, 2011 12:16 PM
Sylvie Stuart
Realty One Group Mountain Desert 928-600-2765 - Flagstaff, AZ
Home Buying, Home Selling and Investment - Flagsta

There are so many programs out there and resources out there for buyers to grab on to to help with the home purchasing process, I agree with commenters who commented on confidence, once that confidence comes back, it's going to explode. It's already turning around and we're seeing more and more buyers coming forward

Jan 09, 2012 12:34 AM
Matt Robinson
Professional Investors Guild - Pensacola, FL
www.professionalinvestorsguild.com

I'm sure I'm probably echoing some others here on the Rain, but as you even pointed out yourself, buying a bag of potato chips (or even a car for that matter) is far different than $150,000+ home with a 30 year loan commitment when you don't know if you will keep your job.  Even with low prices, and low rates, until we see consumer confidence start rising...housing will continue to struggle.

May 07, 2012 02:56 AM