I read a recent post decrying the over-reliance on numbers in our real estate businesses. The post was well written and received a number of agreeable comments. While I know you can take anything too far, I think it's very necessary to use numbers in our business. Here's why.
First and foremost, we all realize that real estate markets are local. Therefore, we need accurate local data to respond to the misleading numbers published by the NAR and our state associations. The statistics put out, especially by the NAR are picked up by national media and create false impressions that probably don't apply anywhere. It's really hard to counteract those false impressions, but it's absolutely impossible without accurate local data. I publish a quarterly report of our market activity and use any speaking opportunity to spread the message of our local conditions.
Besides counteracting false impressions, I have to know what's going on for my own benefit and that of my customers and clients. I need to know current selling prices, inventory levels, absorbtion rates and days on market for various price ranges and I can't imagine doing a listing presentation or counseling a buyer without that knowledge.
As I said earlier, there can be too much of anything, and I see lots of successful agents that have no clue as to the specifics of the market. I think these folks can be divided into two categories. One is the experienced agents who have been productive for many years and have developed an instinctive feel for the market. They do enough business that they recognize what's happening and adapt accordingly. The second category includes those who also have no clue but base their actions on impressions and emotions. These folks are "law suits in waiting" because it's just a matter of time until they give the wrong person the wrong advice.
The down side of relying on numbers, especially in a challenging business climate is that you can easily become depressed, negative and lose your enthusiasm for the business. Sometimes, a little ignorance is bliss indeed. In the long run however, I try to follow one of my old statistics instructor's advice. "You have to separate what you know from what you think you know" and data is the surest way to do that.
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