If you follow the news at all, you would think that our economy has collapsed entirely.  At best it seems to be limping along, day by day, grasping at any little crumb that drops.....

I am not an economist, nor do I play one on TV. In fact, I didn't even sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

But I do have eyes, and I see a lot.  And I have noticed some very encouraging things about the economy lately.

I like to call this a "grass-roots" study of the economy. It is non-scientific and won't be filled with any sort of jargon.  It is based on my observations and is anecdotal, but very telling.

Here are those 5 I promised:

  1. Home sales are taking off. I happen to live in Belle Creek, and I do a fair amount of marketing in this neighborhood.  In the past week alone, I have seen 2 sales come to completion and 1 go under contract that I was personally involved with.  In addition, there have been 2 more sold homes and 2 more home that went under contract in Belle Creek alone.  For a neighborhood that has averaged about 19 homes sold per year over the past 3 years to have 4 sales in a 2 week period represents some pretty exciting news.  This is just a micro-cosm of our local real estate market.  I also work in Broomfield, Thornton, Westminster and Erie, and the home sales I have been involved with in these areas over the past 6 months have seen days on market averaging less than 4 weeks.
  2. Builders are getting back in the game.  There are 2 main things that keep me in the car a fair amount: first, I am the mother of an active 11 year-old; second, I am a fairly busy Realtor.  I have noticed a lot of earth moving around lately.  Foundations are being dug, roads are taking shape.  What's more, houses are being built with "sold" signs already in front of them.  In addition, I happen to be intimately familiar with the builder world that happens in the very beginning stages.  To twist a phrase, the stage where the neighborhood in still "a sparkle in the developer's eye".  There's a lot of "sparkling" going on, trust me.  The industry that helps developers' sparkle go from idea to fully conceived product is insanely busy lately.  We are going to see a whole lot more earth moving soon.
  3. The mall parking lot. I had to go to the mall last week, which is something I don't do very often.  (Working in the mall for about 11 years takes some of the fun out of going to the mall unless you absolutely have to.)  More than 1 week before Black Friday, in the middle of the afternoon, the mall parking lot was jam-packed.  I had a very difficult time finding parking at all.  I generally don't park in the first 3 or 4 spaces because I figure I could use the exercise, but 20 spaces back, row after row, there were no spots to be found.  Once I did get inside, every store I went into was crowded, and people were spending money.  The stores were buzzing, and people had multiple large shopping bags in hand.  Which brings me to....
  4. "Help Wanted". There were too many "help wanted" signs in the mall to count.  And I don't just mean at McDonald's and Orange Julius, although those were certainly there.  Nordstrom is hiring.  Hyde Park Fine Jewelers is hiring (for those of you unfamiliar with Hyde Park, John Elway and Tim Tebow shop there, among others).  Anne Taylor, Neiman Marcus, the Gap- the list goes on.  When people start spending more money, stores need more help.  As mentioned above, I worked in retail for many years.  It's a pretty good job.  And I made pretty good money.  Enough to support my family on.  Just saying.
  5. Hair dressers and Salon owners and House cleaners. I tried to make an appointment with my hair dresser last week.  The first opening she had was in the middle of December.  I was able to finagle my way in through bribery and blackmail (kidding!).  While I was there, she told me that December has exploded in her salon, and they are seeing a huge increase in business over last year...  I tried to "drop in" to get my nails done, and guess what?  They had nothing available for walk-ins that day.  At all.   What's more, I have a dear friend who owns a house cleaning business and she has had to turn business away.  She is looking to hire 3-4 new employees.  So what's the point?  Well, all of these things are related because when times are tight, many people will cut out these services and just do it themselves to save money.  If all of these services are insanely busy all of the sudden... well, you do the math.

I realize that Denver may be ahead of other cities.  But even my California friends have been noticing the above trends.

Do your own homework.  I'd love to know what signs you are seeing that play into this!

Jennifer Prestwich is a REALTOR at Your Castle Real Estate, specializing in the Henderson, Thornton and Broomfield areas.

Jennifer Prestwich, REALTOR®

Your Castle Real Estate

 
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32 Comments on 5 "Grass Roots" Signs That the Economy is Improving by Jennifer Prestwich- your Henderson, Thornton and Broomfield REALTOR®

20 Most Recent Comments Displayed Show All

NOV
26
2011
292,425 Points 20 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Jennifer,

Thanks, I like hearing good news.  You're a "buba"-economist.  I'd guess that all your keen observations in Henderson are probably as valid as a "real" economist's data.  Afterall, with enough anecdotes like yours, and pretty soon you have real economic data.  Much of the San Francisco Bay area real estate is better than national media reports.

5:27pm • #13
325,417 Points 40 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Jennifer - I have also seen signs of a reawakening. Let's hope it holds true. With so much negative news, I sometimes wonder. But then again, I think people have had it with negative news. We've been on the edge of crisis for years. Sometimes you just have to live life, come what may. This may be what's happening, which could be the best news of all!

5:53pm • #14

Yes you are right. Grass roots economy. All real estate is local. Our local economy is picking up. We have new jobs,houses are selling, foreclosures are down and Realtors have smiles on their faces. 

7:15pm • #15
644,381 Points 111 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Jennifer any sign of recovery is good news.  It doesn't matter whether work is blue collar, white collar, professional, skilled or unskilled. Anytime there is work to be done and not enough time to do it, it may very well be a good sign.

7:15pm • #16
342,246 Points 2 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Hi Jennifer. There may be a few signs but after Quantitative Easing 2 and 3 it's still very challenging for women and children especially to "fight" the devalued dollar. In my area at least.

We are getting less... for more while incomes are not rising so here in Tampa Bay unfortunately I am not seeing that though home sales are increasing. The sales price has been slowly decreasing.

8:17pm • #17
153,209 Points 12 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Jennifer, that is nice but in the big picture unfortunately nonsense. What you see has nothing to do with "recovery". You see people who survived multiple lay offs who believe it is safe to spend some money again. And even with 9% (or really rather 18%)unemployment there are still 82% people in employment.

What you see is people who have money that they need to park and CDs and the stock market are not an option anymore. What you see are some builders who have nothing to loose and need to work and start houses for $80 per sqft...

What you should see is a less than weak German bond sale (an enormous catastrophe), that our "super committee" did not manage to cut a little over 7% of the current deficit, thus leaving us with 100% deficit spending rather than 93%, that by now that amount of unfunded obligations the US has accumulated is over 145 Trillion $$$$$.....

I don't think is is responsible to cheer lead and tell people that their wishful thinking is coming true. This is not over and we have not seen the smallest part of what it about to happen. There is a gigantic sh... hitting the fan..

And this is not "negative" thinking, this is reality, it is math and who said that?: "arithmetic is not an opinion".....

8:58pm • #18
Jennifer, While small pockets or some people are doing alright, still overall the state of the nation is poor. 400 to 500 notice of election and demand documents go out a week in the Denver area. Something is still broken, maybe you are seeing glimmers of hope...
9:21pm • #19
293,173 Points 7 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp

The only problem I have with your study is where you say that there are a lot of help wanted signs.  I see them too, only they are mostly at McDonald's and TJ Maxx. 

9:28pm • #20
157,531 Points Outside Blog

I just posted on my blog our Market Report for Fairfield Glade TN and compared to last year things have improved. If the home is priced for the market it will be under contract within 30 days....almost a guarantee. If all sellers realized that truth or I should say would accept that truth ~ we would have a very low inventory of homes in our local market. Thanks for sharing the optimistic news.

9:40pm • #21
227,338 Points 17 Featured Posts Outside Blog

My husband and I have been amazed each time we go to the mall how many people we see shopping (same as before the economy started going bad)... often they are carrying many bags or buying expensive items.  You'd never know the economy is bad by going to our local malls.

11:03pm • #22
NOV
27
2011
235,736 Points 10 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Hi Jennifer--I think it depends on where in the country one is.  My sister reports from Baltimore that the Baltimore-Washington area is doing better.  Relatives and friends in the Midwest say things are not very good, friends from the southwest say they are holding their own, but housing is still a mess.  Here on Maui tourism is up, but one of the local health clubs just went bankrupt and house prices continue to fall in most parts of the island. 

12:01am • #23
1,138,248 Points 153 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Jennifer - That is excellent news.  Even though this is anecdotal, it's the sign of good things to come.

7:48am • #24
553,341 Points 147 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Jennifer, good news is good news.  I see some minor signs of recovery in this area, but there is a long way to go.  But, I'll take every piece of good news I can get!!

8:27am • #25
1,125,617 Points 90 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Great post Jennifer. I went to eat at a higher end Italian restaurant the other Friday night. Their casual side (walk ins normally) had a 15 minute wait and the upscale upstairs had a 1 hour line. Crazy!

9:07am • #26
704,849 Points 56 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Jennifer i am seeing similar signs here in NH, our unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, home sales for November have been the strongest in 4 years. Current homes listed are down 30% but sales are up 18%, i also see restaurants full where once there was half open seats on any given night, retail spending is up. It is all a good sign if only the politicians would let nature happen and stop messing things up we would be out of this

9:08am • #27
220,580 Points 2 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

It's great to hear that Colorado is seeing some positive signs.  I've been watching closely (close family there- it's always on my mind to move back), but reading the Denver Post daily is not the same as actually seeing dirt move, stores hiring, etc.  Sounds like I need to subscribe to your blog!

2:40pm • #28
392,434 Points 12 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Hit Router Called Shot Master

I hope you are right, and that people are not just ratcheting up their credit debt.  The jobless rate is down here in my area, and that is a wonderfully positive sign.  We'll have to see how the new year looks.  Happy Holidays!

3:14pm • #29
299,451 Points 48 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Corinne- Good to hear- it's not just me!  I love Barrington (grew up in Crystal Lake)- and if your inventory is low, that's a GREAT sign for the area.

Lloyd- haha- I don't know if I've ever been called a "Bubba", but in this case, I'll take it! :)  I'm glad that San Francisco is doing well.  But, you are so right- put together enough anecdotal evidence and you'll get "real" data pretty soon.

Judy- I think you're right about that.  I was talking with some friends about this and they made the comment that people are just tired of living in fear.  Plus, in the Denver area, we are extremely fortunate that our unemployment numbers have improved...

Elizabeth- Yay!  That's what I'm talking about.  All real estate is local, and I think that drives local economies, and will eventually spread.

Charita- (standing up to give you a hug and a high-five...) THANK YOU!

Lana- Your area was hit pretty darn hard.  My dad lives near you, and he has seen his property value drop substantially, while his property taxes remain obnoxiously high.  

Annette- I don't know who said that "arithmetic is not an option".  I'm pretty sure it wasn't me.

Stephen- Something is still broken for sure, but not everything is still broken, thank goodness.

 

7:26pm • #30
299,451 Points 48 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Morris- See what Charita said about jobs- #17.

 

7:28pm • #31
299,451 Points 48 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Celeste- I wish all sellers would see that.... but it is good news that things are improving, even if only a little bit!

Leanne- I know!  I was in the Coach store and people were walking out with multiple bags of merchandise.  The sales people could hardly keep up with the clients :)

Janet- You are so right.  It does depend... as evidenced by people's commentary here.  Thank you for chiming in!

Debbie- That's what I thought, too.  Even if it is anecodtal, it is 100% true. 

Mike- ME TOO.  A little good news can go a long way... especially if it's true.

Erica- Exactly what I mean!  My husband and I went on a splurge dinner for my birthday, and the place was absolutely packed!

Scott- GREAT.  I love hearing this!  I'm not fantasizing... I realize that things aren't completely "fixed", but they are heading in the right direction!

Laurie- Welcome- I'd love to have you subscribe! :)  And when you move back, I know a GREAT brokerage for you... (heehee!)

Kathryn- I think most people have learned a lesson about credit...  And HAPPY HOLIDAYS to you, too!

7:36pm • #32

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