One significant mistake people often make when gauging the future is to view the future as a simple extension of today. In other words, they view the economy as static – especially after a period of turmoil – and they forget that economies, populations, and wealth continue to grow.
Warren Buffett recently said on CNBC that he didn't think the housing market/real estate needed more stimulus; it needed more households to be created.
That's exactly what has occurred every decade since 1950. What's more, households have actually grown at a faster clip than population. Over the past decade, the U.S. population grew 9.5 percent, while households grew 12.5 percent (for a variety of reasons: growing population, divorce, single living, smaller families). Household growth is expected to continue to outpace population growth into the relevant future.
The point is not to focus on static numbers and to factor on future growth. More housing demand is created each year, which, in turn, helps absorb supply, which has been increasing (at least new homes) at a snail's pace over the past few years.
The trend in household growth is just one more reason we look forward to an improved housing market in 2012.
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